Another great Fantasy Baseball Event hosted by the NFBC.

Well, I started the day worried that my flight would be delayed due to the massive snow storms that hit the northeast, but once I was on my way to Chicago, my focus shifted to the upcoming draft.

I spent a few weeks pouring over my projections, participating in mock drafts, reviewing spring training statistics, and reading articles on the internet. I thought I had a good idea of what my team might look like at the end of the day, but as usual, the draft went in a different direction.

The National Fantasy Baseball Championship consists of 25 different 15-team leagues that are ranked as one large group when determining the overall national champion. Needless to say, you need a good strategy, a lot of skill and a little bit of luck to win this game.

Most teams enter the draft with a goal to draft a balanced team. It is very difficult to win the national prize when you don't get points in any particular category. Some owners like to gamble and forego the pursuit of relief pitching, and hope to get the Saves they need to compete nationally through the free agent market. Each strategy has its pros and cons, and you never know who in your league may try something even more risky.

The following is a play by play of my draft. I had a blast, and I had a great time chatting to Brent Grooms who drafted from the 10th slot and has turned his success in the NFBC into a part-time job with Fantasy HQ. Both of us were surprised by the way the draft played out, but it was a really enjoyable time.

Rd	Pick	ADP	Roto	Pos	Player Name	Team	Comments
1	11	9	9	OF	Beltran, Carlos	NYM	I didn't plan to ever see Beltran at pick 11, but anyone drafted in first few rounds can vary by each owner's plan.
2	20	14	8	1B	Berkman, Lance	HOU	I had targeted Berkman for my round 1 pick, since he qualified at 1B/OF, but he slid to round 2. I was actually targeting Derrek Lee or Jimmy Rollins here, but my league put a premium on Stolen Bases, so neither player made it to me.
3	41	44	21	RP	Nathan, Joe	MIN	Through the first three rounds, the Average Draft Pick was pretty accurate, so I decided to pass on Bill Hall who the ADP said I could get in round 4. I started the closer run, as expected.
4	50	42	28	SP	Halladay, Roy	TOR	Well, the ADP went off track in round 4, as Bill Hall was selected by Team 15 with the 46th pick overall. At this point, the only real value in the draft were the elite Starting Pitchers, so I took Roy Halladay.
5	71	64	94	OF	Dunn, Adam	CIN	After losing out on Bill Hall, I was lacking the power needed to compete for a national title, so I selected one of my favorite players in Adam Dunn. If by some miracle he can raise his Batting Average to .270+ this year, I got a 3rd round value in round 5.
6	80	79	102	OF	Rios, Alexis	TOR	My analysis of NFBC showed that OF was one of the weaker positions, since each team is required to have 5 outfielders. I really needed speed at this point, but Brandon Phillips, Julio Lugo, Rickie Weeks, and Howie Kendrick were long gone, and I thought the next level of speed would begin in round 8. The average draft pick for Rios was 79, suggesting that he would not make it back to me in round 7. As it turned out, the ADP was way off on the next level of speedsters, as my league put a premium on Stolen Base guys. Players like Josh Barfield, Ian Kinsler, Orlando Cabrera, Willy Tavares quickly left the board in round 7, leaving me with a serious deficiency.
7	101	86	60	RP	Jenks, Bobby	CWS	After the elite closers left the board in round 3 and 4, the owners seemed to be reluctant to draft second closer. With the recent history of 10-15 closer roles changing in the last few years, it was a valid concern. On the other hand, Bobby Jenks was on the board for 25 picks beyond the Average Draft Pick (ADP), and he was by far the highest player on my board. By grabbing a second closer, I locked up 10 league points in the standings and I anticipated starting a closer run.
8	110	88	36	SP	Kazmir, Scott	TB	At this point in the draft, I saw tremendous value all across the board. A lot of players had slid, as most owners had put a premium on speedsters to this point in the draft. Most owners try to let pitching slide, but Kazmir had already slid almost 30 picks past the ADP (or 2 NFBC rounds), and I believe he will be a Top 50 player this year. Kazmir was the easy choice in my mind.
9	131	83	104	2B	Uggla, Dan	FLA	The closer and pitching run occurred in round 8 and 9, and that allowed some power hitters to slide. Dan Uggla was a top 50 player in 2006, and his ADP suggested he was 6th round pick in most NFBC drafts, so I think I got a nice value in round 9.
10	140	142	131	C	Rodriguez, Ivan	DET	When a 15 team league requires each team to start 2 catchers, you really don't want to get stuck with guys who hurt more than help. IROD is having a great spring, and has always been a favorite of mine. He is old, but at least he won't kill my batting average. In hind sight, I probably could have reached for Podsednik (who slid on injury concerns), but at this point, I had practically committed to playing for the $5,000 league prize rather than chasing the 100 SB I would need to compete for the $100,000 National Prize.
11	161	237	136	RP	Dempster, Ryan	CHC	Before the draft, I checked out the spring stats and noticed that Dempster was pitching well. Much better than Kerry Wood or Bobby Howry. Pinella has said that Dempster will open the season as the closer, so it is his job to lose. I may only get 10-15 saves from him, before he is de-throwned, but That may be enough to get me 15 league points when added to the 80 from Nathan and Jenks.
12	170	105	132	OF	Ordonez, Magglio	DET	Round 12 is when I decided to fully commit to pursuing a league title. I ignored a collection of average outfielders who can get you 10 SB and 10 HR, for players who can post 25-30 HR and 100 RBI. You can win a league by tanking one category, and I chose to tank stolen bases at this point! At 65 picks beyong the Average Draft Pick (ADP) and 40 picks beyond the RotoRank Pick, Maggs was an obvious choice.
13	191	148	176	OF	Burrell, Pat	PHI	Pat Burrell has never had that MVP year, but he has the skill set to do so. He is in an awesome lineup, so he has some upside, but I'm targeting him for 25 HR and 100 RBI.
14	200	198	195	3B	Blalock, Hank	TEX	Hank Blalock was a need pick. Everyone thinks this is where he should go, but he has upside if he can return to his 2004 form.
15	221	214	302	SS	Peralta, Johnny	CLE	Peralta is another need pick, but I love his lineup and potential upside. I didn't plan on needing a shortstop at this point, but he fits my plan to win the league.
16	230	256	150	SP	Garland, Jon	CWS	Garland was way overdue according to the RotoRank Projections. These late round picks is where RotoRank shines, because most draft boards don't accurately rate pitchers. Most draft guides rate pitchers based on where they think they will be drafted, rather than their actual draft value. A potential 15-game winner on a playoff caliber team should have gone in in the Top 200 for sure.
17	251	179	171	C	Pierzynski, AJ	CWS	Everyone is concerned with the possibility of a platoon, but for a catcher, it is actually an adavantage. CIN got 35+ HR from LaRue and Ross last year. Catcher platoons usually improve both player's batting averages, and can sometimes improve their HR/AB ratio. AJ should have went 80 picks earlier, and with 4 HR this spring, he is looking like a real bargain for me at this point.
18	260	259	292	CI	Iwamura, Akinori	TB	Who knows what I will get from Iwamura. He could be a bust, or he could have some upside. I needed a corner infielder, and I thought I'd take a gamble.
19	281	284	182	SP	Igawa, Kei	NYY	Igawa was looking like a real steal to me at this point. The Yankees invested heavily in him, and he is only 27. He averaged 1 K/IP in Japan, so he has a lot of upside. With all of the media attention on Dice-K, Igawa could be a great late draft pick.
20	290	248	188	SP	Lowry, Noah	SF	Lowry is another pitcher who RotoRank projected to be in the Top 200, so at pick 290, he was an obvious choice from my draft board. If he ever returns to the 1 K/IP level he had in 2005, he could be big bargain.
21	311	295	420	MI	Bartlett, Jason	MIN	I'm not sure why I decided to draft Bartlett at this point. I think he has the potential to steal 30 bases this year, and I needed a middle infielder, but he really doesn't help me dominate AVG, HR, R, and RBI. I may end up cutting him, if he gets off to a slow start, since there are some other options still available.
22	320	338	556	UH	Betemit, Wilson	LA	Betemit was a reach for me. But I think he has upside. I was looking for someone who could hit 20+ HR at the Utility Hitter position.
23	341	252	161	RES	Prior, Mark	CHC	Prior is not having a great spring, but if I have to take a chance on a pitcher with a high injury risk, why not Prior? At least he is healthy right now, and if he doesn't pan out, I will cut him. But, if he can stay healthy, he may have regained his control and velocity by July, so he may have a second half surge.
24	350	250	197	SP	Blanton, Joe	OAK	I actually should have drafted Blanton before Prior, but since I was in Chicago and guys like Pedro Martiniez, Nick Johnson, and Samm Sosa were just selected, it was worth the risk. I plan to have Blanton start the season in my rotation, and he still has some upside.
25	371	N/A	1066	RES	Sledge, Terrmel	SD	Sledge is having a great spring and he looks like he will lock up a starting position in San Diego. I needed a reserve outfielder in case of injury, and Sledge has 20 HR potential, if he gets 600 AB.
26	380	422	450	RES	Milledge, Lastings	NYM	When you are in your reserve rounds, you want to find guys who can protect your team from an unexpected injury, or grab a player who has great upside. Milledge is having a great spring, and if Willie Randolph is a good manager, he'd make Milledge the starting Left Fielder and make Shawn Green the reserve outfielder.
27	401	369	200	RES	Coffey, Todd	CIN	Coffey is having an awesome spring, and Weathers is no lock to keep the closer job in CIN. This late in the draft, selecting a setup man behind a shaky closer is a good way to save 400+ Free Agent Dollars from my $1000 season long budget.
28	410	408	219	RES	Turnbow, Derrick	MIL	I learned the hard way in 2006 that Francisco Cordero is no lock to stay healthy or pitch well in the closer role. Cordero did well with Milwuakee last year, but if he falters, Turnbow could get his job back. Turnbow is having an excellent spring, and could also become trade bait. If I were Milwuakee, I'd deal Turnbow and Mench for Lowell or Youklis and a few prospects.
29	431	455	307	RES	Miner, Zach	DET	Miner is having a great spring, and he is slotted to be the fifth starter on a Detroit team that went to the World Series in 2006, and has actually improved during the off-season. A steal in round 29.
30	440	N/A	496	RES	Villanueva, Carlos	MIL	Last year, I pegged Josh Johnson to be a potential breakout pitcher. This year's candidate is Carlos Villanueva. He is having a stellar spring and he averages 1 K/IP in the minors and his brief 2006 call up. I think he should win the 5th spot in the Brewer Rotation coming out of spring, but he may follow Josh Johnson's 2006 path and spend April as part of the bullpen.

If you were building a truly balanced team, you would have at least 2 reliable closers in your bullpen, 2 hitters that could steal 30+ bases, with at least 120 stolen bases coming from your remaining 14 hitters. A lot of the teams that reached their speed goals took chances in their bullpen. If those teams work the free agent market properly, they may have a chance nationally, but everything will need to fall in place for them, especially since there are 4 or five teams that will be competing for each free agent closer that arises during the 2007.

Although I do not have a team that projects to compete for the national prize (losing about 320 to 360 points by tanking Stolen Bases), I think my team should finish in the Top 25 overall and it has a good chance of winning the $5,000.00 League Prize. It is possible that a second place team in any league could finish higher in the national standings, because they may have a more balanced team overall when compared to 375 teams versus 15 teams within a league.

I am one of the few teams to own 3 closers coming out of the draft, and my three closers are much safer than the other teams with 3 closers. I also have one of the few teams that project to have 300+ homeruns. Only time will tell how my starting pitching compares to the rest of the league, but I don't see any clear cut favorites in that department, and I have a lot of upside with my staff as well. I should easily hit my targets for Wins and Strikeouts, but ERA and WHIP are hard to predict.

The keys to a league victory for me will be to insure that I get 15 points in Saves, and keep my core players healthy by using my reserve wisely. I will not have to chase closers on the free agent market, so I will use my free agent money to pickup a few hitters or starting pitchers during the season as my needs surface.

Overall, I had another great time at the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and I look forward to competing against a great league of competitors.

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