How did your Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide do in 2007?

In order to become a dominant fantasy baseball owner, you have understood all aspects of the game. Experience is the best teacher when it comes to a specific fantasy baseball league, since each league has their own set of custom rules that allow nuances to form.

Since most fantasy baseball draft guides are customized for each specific league, it’s hard to determine their value to the purchaser. In an effort to show RotoRank users how effective my system was in 2007, I will use my National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft guide to determine how well it performed against the Average Draft Pick (ADP) list that many owners referred to during their NFBC drafts.

In order to make the comparison between the 2007 RotoRank Projections and 2007 ADP Projections, I will use the National Fantasy Baseball Championship’s final player rankings for 2007. The NFBC Rankings are based on their scoring system and use their own independent mathematical calculations. Now, the NFBC rankings may not be any better than the RotoRank or ADP fantasy baseball draft rankings, but it is customized to the rules of the NFBC, which make it a viable benchmark.

Average Draft Pick Projections

The ADP fantasy baseball draft list was compiled by me from a variety of sources and the mock drafts that I did during my 2007 preparations. It was included on all of my reports to allow RotoRank users to make tough draft day decisions between two similarly graded players that they were considering for a given selection.

RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Projections

The RotoRank fantasy baseball draft list was generated using a series of mathematical calculations that I have been developing over the last 15 years. Each year I make minor adjustments the formulas based upon the feedback I receive from adding the most recent season’s actual statistics to my regression testing pool.

Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Comparison

For the purposes of this data analysis, I will utilize 4 different categories to indicate which fantasy baseball draft guide performed better, RotoRank or ADP.

N/A – Represents any row that could not be fairly benchmarked due to the ADP fantasy baseball draft guide not assigning a rank to a player prior to the season. (RotoRank ranks 1100+ major league players available at the start of the season, where as the ADP only focuses on the top 500 players most commonly drafted by fantasy baseball owners.)

Tie – Represents that both the ADP and RotoRank prediction had a similar level of error. The error ranges were grouped by increments of 15, representing the number of players selected during 1 round of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Draft.

ADP – Represents a player ranking where the Average Draft Pick list out-performed the RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for the NFBC by 1 or more error groups.

RotoRank – Represents a player ranking where the RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Draft

Guide for the NFBC out-performed the Average Draft Pick list by 1 or more error groups.

Summary of Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Results

The first analysis will be focused on the first 20 of 30 rounds of the NFBC draft. There is more likely to be wider variances in the Average Draft Pick list beyond the core rounds, since drafters are forced to build a complete roster, so they will be forced to select marginal players in the final 10 rounds of their fantasy baseball draft.

Tie	135	45%
ADP	53	18%
RotoRank	67	22%
N/A	45	15%
	300

The first row indicates that 45% of the picks made by the ADP and RotoRank had the same level of error when compared to the final 2007 NFBC Rankings.
The ADP out performed RotoRank 18% of the time. When you examine the details, you will see exactly how which fantasy baseball draft picks were closer to the benchmark versus RotoRank. Many of these draft picks are what I would consider medium to high-risk picks.
22% of the time, RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide out performed the ADP. RotoRank compared better to the NFBC benchmark by 14 more players. This may not seem like much, but if you consider that most of my picks feature pitchers, you can see how RotoRank users can gain an advantage by drafting good pitchers later than when they are usually valued.
There were 15% players that were not compared, since the ADP never assigned a 2007 fantasy baseball value to them. All of these players were surprise performers that got an opportunity to play due to injury or another player’s poor performance. The number of "N/A" values shows the unpredictable nature of forecasting fantasy baseball draft picks.
Of the 45 N/A players in the Top 300, 8 were closers, 10 were hitters, and the remaining 27 were starting pitchers or middle relievers. This seems to reinforce the idea that you can get good pitchers from the free agent pool, so many drafters focus solely on hitting during the draft. The flaw in this logic is that if you build an entire roster of bad pitchers waiting for free agents to surface, you will likely get buried before you can get the replacements needed from Free Agency.

Doing an analysis of the entire draft pool, you can see that the rankings hold up down the line.

Details of Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Results

The following list of 470+ players allows you to compare each fantasy baseball draft ranking system on a player-by-player basis. I made comments on each player who did not have a predictor value of “Tie”. Hopefully it’ll give you some more insight into the RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

NAME	TEAM	FINAL 2007 NFBC RANK	2007 ADP RANK	2007 Roto Rank	2007 ADP Error	2007 Roto Rank Error	Best Predictor	Comments
Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	1	4	4	-3	-3	Tie
Ramirez, Hanley	FLA	2	27	32	-25	-30	Tie
Reyes, Jose	NYM	3	3	3	0	0	Tie
Rollins, Jimmy	PHI	4	23	24	-19	-20	Tie
Wright, David	NYM	5	12	14	-7	-9	Tie
Putz, JJ	SEA	6	73	53	-67	-47	Tie
Holliday, Matt	COL	7	19	13	-12	-6	Tie
Byrnes, Eric	ARI	8	139	277	-131	-269	ADP	I did not want to gamble on Byrnes, when ARI had so many young outfielders in the mix. Byrnes was one of the main reasons ARI went to the playoffs.
Saito, Takashi	LA	9	115	83	-106	-74	RotoRank	RotoRank doesn't determine value of a player based on a fantasy baseball strategy. Most people draft hitters before pitching, so they often miss good value picks in pitching!
Ordonez, Magglio	DET	10	105	131	-95	-121	Tie
Phillips, Brandon	CIN	11	92	89	-81	-78	Tie
Peavy, Jake	SD	12	49	49	-37	-37	Tie
Crawford, Carl	TB	13	6	10	7	3	Tie
Fielder, Prince	MIL	14	66	113	-52	-99	ADP	I often like to see a young hitter put up 2 consecutive years of great stats before I rank them as a top 50 fantasy baseball pick. Prince Fielder will likely be a Top 25 fantasy baseball pick this year.
Papelbon, Jonathan	BOS	15	147	115	-132	-100	Tie
Ortiz, David	BOS	16	11	18	5	-2	Tie
Beltran, Carlos	NYM	17	9	8	8	9	Tie
Sizemore, Grady	CLE	18	16	29	2	-11	Tie
Valverde, Jose	ARI	19	184	141	-165	-122	RotoRank	Many owners undervalue pitchers in fantasy baseball, especially when they are injury prone.
Nathan, Joe	MIN	20	44	25	-24	-5	RotoRank	A stud closer is more valuable than many people think in fantasy baseball, especially in leagues that rank ERA and WHIP.
Braun, Ryan	MIL	21	444	516	-423	-495	Tie
Roberts, Brian	BAL	22	47	69	-25	-47	Tie
Suzuki, Ichiro	SEA	23	22	35	1	-12	Tie
Granderson, Curtis	DET	24	200	221	-176	-197	Tie
Jenks, Bobby	CWS	25	86	61	-61	-36	Tie
Howard, Ryan	PHI	26	5	6	21	20	Tie
Rodriguez, Francisco	ANA	27	43	40	-16	-13	Tie
Sabathia, CC	CLE	28	96	81	-68	-53	Tie
Pena, Carlos	TB	29	N/A	1162	N/A	-1133	N/A	Talk about the fantasy baseball FA Pickup of the year in 2007. Now can he reproduce that performance in 2008?
Pierre, Juan	LA	30	50	129	-20	-99	ADP	I didn't believe Pierre would be as productive in LA last year, and I'd rather have a more balanced fantasy baseball hitter in the Top 50.
Beckett, Josh	BOS	31	174	87	-143	-56	RotoRank	I'd put up my pitching predictions against any ranking system. I forecast and rank pitchers based purely on stats, not the "draft pitchers late" strategy.
Cordero, Francisco	MIL	32	121	147	-89	-115	Tie
Santana, Johan	MIN	33	7	1	26	32	Tie
Lee, Carlos	HOU	34	15	15	19	19	Tie
Abreu, Bobby	NYY	35	28	41	7	-6	Tie
Jones, Chipper	ATL	36	74	92	-38	-56	Tie
Markakis, Nick	BAL	37	135	168	-98	-131	Tie
Hunter, Torii	MIN	38	68	80	-30	-42	Tie
Hoffman, Trevor	SD	39	84	65	-45	-26	Tie
Soriano, Alfonso	CHC	40	2	5	38	35	Tie
Dunn, Adam	CIN	41	64	90	-23	-49	Tie
Cabrera, Miguel	FLA	42	13	12	29	30	Tie
Webb, Brandon	ARI	43	51	17	-8	26	ADP	Was too aggressive with my fantasy baseball prediction for Webb last year? Maybe,but I think most owners would have loved owning Webb in 2007.
Lackey, John	ANA	44	71	77	-27	-33	Tie
Harang, Aaron	CIN	45	85	66	-40	-21	Tie
Rios, Alexis	TOR	46	79	91	-33	-45	Tie
Pujols, Albert	STL	47	1	2	46	45	Tie
Utley, Chase	PHI	48	8	9	40	39	Tie
Bedard, Erik	BAL	49	134	97	-85	-48	RotoRank	Why do all but the elite pitchers get no respect in Fantasy Baseball?
Guerrero, Vladimir	ANA	50	10	11	40	39	Tie
Vazquez, Javier	CWS	51	172	188	-121	-137	Tie
Upton, BJ	TB	52	250	645	-198	-593	Tie
Hart, Corey	MIL	53	232	357	-179	-304	Tie
Wagner, Billy	NYM	54	60	44	-6	10	Tie
Verlander, Justin	DET	55	113	116	-58	-61	Tie
Isringhausen, Jason	STL	56	190	112	-134	-56	RotoRank	The pursuit of the cheap save led many fantasy baseball owners to bypass Izzy in 2007.
Figgins, Chone	ANA	57	40	126	17	-69	ADP	Figgins early season injury forced me to be more coservative when ranking him for my fantasy baseball leagues..
Berkman, Lance	HOU	58	14	7	44	51	Tie
Sheffield, Gary	DET	59	54	68	5	-9	Tie
Haren, Dan	OAK	60	120	103	-60	-43	Tie
Smoltz, John	ATL	61	75	104	-14	-43	ADP	Smoltz is an elite fantasy baseball pitcher, and he didn't wear down like I expected…
Rowand, Aaron	PHI	62	169	218	-107	-156	ADP	Rowand had a great fantasy baseball season, but few expected a Top 75 performnace.
Accardo, Jeremy	TOR	63	N/A	771	N/A	-708	N/A	A recent fantasy baseball trend, cheap free agent saves when BJ Ryan went to DL.
Hamels, Cole	PHI	64	107	99	-43	-35	Tie
Carmona , Fausto	CLE	65	350	928	-285	-863	Tie
Young, Chris B	ARI	66	206	242	-140	-176	ADP	Another impressive fantasy baseball performance by a youngster, but will he improve in 2008?
Kazmir, Scott	TB	67	88	34	-21	33	RotoRank	If Kazmir was on a better team,he'd be a Top 25 fantasy baseball player!
Martin, Russell	LA	68	173	154	-105	-86	Tie
Escobar, Kelvim	ANA	69	194	164	-125	-95	Tie
Beltre, Adrian	SEA	70	158	204	-88	-134	Tie
Borowski, Joe	CLE	71	212	167	-141	-96	Tie
Zambrano, Carlos	CHC	72	46	31	26	41	Tie
Guillen, Carlos	DET	73	57	63	16	10	Tie
Tulowitzki, Troy	COL	74	302	284	-228	-210	Tie
Lilly, Ted	CHC	75	251	215	-176	-140	RotoRank	I wonder how inflated Lilly will be this year in fantasy baseball leagues?
Rivera, Mariano	NYY	76	63	56	13	20	Tie
Lowell, Mike	BOS	77	246	328	-169	-251	Tie
Teixeira, Mark	ATL	78	18	22	60	56	Tie
Cordero, Chad	WAS	79	97	60	-18	19	RotoRank	Cordero had a down year in Saves, but he still had a solid fantasy baseball season…
Matsuzaka, Daisuke	BOS	80	90	57	-10	23	ADP	Dice-K didn't live up to the fantasy baseball hype.
Matsui, Hideki	NYY	81	58	51	23	30	Tie
Maine, John	NYM	82	323	229	-241	-147	RotoRank	Now this is what you would call a nice fantasy baseball sleeper pick.
Atkins, Garrett	COL	83	35	74	48	9	RotoRank	I definitely felt that Atkins would have a disappointing fantasy baseball season in 2007, based on his horrible spring numbers!
Shields, James	TB	84	307	337	-223	-253	Tie
Gonzalez, Adrian	SD	85	143	159	-58	-74	Tie
Perez, Oliver	NYM	86	378	751	-292	-665	Tie
Jeter, Derek	NYY	87	17	21	70	66	Tie
Cabrera, Orlando	ANA	88	112	196	-24	-108	ADP	The allure of speed helped the ADP nail this fantasy baseball pick.
Hawpe, Brad	COL	89	156	209	-67	-120	ADP	Another young player who I thought would have an average fantasy baseball season. With 2 good seasons in a row, it'll be hard to keep him out of the Top 100 for 2008.
Posada, Jorge	NYY	90	127	158	-37	-68	Tie
Victorino, Shane	PHI	91	263	381	-172	-290	Tie
Lee, Derrek	CHC	92	29	20	63	72	Tie
Morneau, Justin	MIN	93	31	39	62	54	Tie
Hudson, Tim	ATL	94	245	176	-151	-82	RotoRank	Hudson returned to fantasy baseball Top 100 by pitching like he did during his early Oakland days!
Kinsler, Ian	TEX	95	146	111	-51	-16	Tie
Gregg, Kevin	FLA	96	266	157	-170	-61	RotoRank	RotoRank predicted he would get at least half of the Marlins saves in 2007 which made him a valuable fantasy baseball sleeper.
Penny, Brad	LA	97	176	150	-79	-53	RotoRank	Penny keeps on turning up as a solid fantasy baseball scorer…
Francis, Jeff	COL	98	281	208	-183	-110	RotoRank	He has the stuff to be a great pitcher, now COL has a team to support his fantasy baseball value.
Griffey Jr., Ken	CIN	99	199	230	-100	-131	Tie
Martinez, Victor	CLE	100	48	67	52	33	RotoRank	The Top Hitting catcher in fantasy baseball will always get drafted higher than his worth due to position scarcity. The trick is not to overpay too much!
Halladay, Roy	TOR	101	42	27	59	74	Tie
Thome, Jim	CWS	102	56	58	46	44	Tie
Weathers, Dave	CIN	103	294	257	-191	-154	Tie
Cano, Robinson	NYY	104	55	52	49	52	Tie
Oswalt, Roy	HOU	105	41	19	64	86	Tie
Damon, Johnny	NYY	106	45	42	61	64	Tie
Capps, Matt	PIT	107	372	210	-265	-103	RotoRank	I live in Pittsburgh, so I had a feeling he'd have the full-time closer job and be a fantasy baseball sleeper sooner than later.
Guillen, Jose	SEA	108	326	243	-218	-135	RotoRank	Injury prone players are often cast aside by the Average Draft Pickers in fantasy baseball. The key is factoring in the risk is adjusting the stats of an injury shortened.
Uggla, Dan	FLA	109	83	105	26	4	RotoRank	His batting average is why he wasn't a Top 50 fantasy baseball player.
Hill, Rich	CHC	110	164	122	-54	-12	RotoRank	Another young pitcher that RotoRank was able to rate better than fantasy baseball ADP ranks.
Wang, Chien-Ming	NYY	111	122	118	-11	-7	Tie
Corpas, M	COL	112	N/A	640	N/A	-528	N/A	Cheap saves boosted his fantasy baseball value when Fuentes lost job in COL.
Ramirez, Aramis	CHC	113	33	36	80	77	Tie
Young, Chris R	SD	114	196	86	-82	28	RotoRank	You can really tell that a majority of fantasy baseball draft lists favor hitters more than pitchers, when there is such a large gap of forecastsand actuals of younger pitchers.
Street, Huston	OAK	115	80	46	35	69	ADP	Street's injuries prevented him from making a Top 50 fantasy baseball impact in 2007.
Francoeur, Jeff	ATL	116	129	135	-13	-19	Tie
Soria, Joakim	KC	117	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Another closer who got the call from out of fantasy baseball free agent pool.
Burnett, AJ	TOR	118	125	108	-7	10	Tie
Hernandez, Felix	SEA	119	91	64	28	55	ADP	Felix has the talent to be a Top 75 fantasy baseball pitcher. ADP was accurate because they devalue pitching.
Blanton, Joe	OAK	120	258	192	-138	-72	RotoRank	Blanton had a great fantasy baseball year.
Zimmerman, Ryan	WAS	121	65	85	56	36	RotoRank	Look how much more aggressive the ADP ranks hitting.
Betancourt, Rafael	CLE	122	322	428	-200	-306	Tie
Polanco, Placido	DET	123	267	354	-144	-231	ADP	Polanco put up great fantasy baseball numbers in 2007.
Young, Michael	TEX	124	38	28	86	96	Tie
Cameron, Mike	SD	125	109	160	16	-35	ADP	Cameron's fantasy baseball value is based in speed.
Greene, Khalil	SD	126	286	307	-160	-181	Tie
Lidge, Brad	HOU	127	124	72	3	55	ADP	Lidge's loss of confidence cost him a Top 50 finish in the 2007 fantasy baseball rankings.
Renteria, Edgar	ATL	128	93	156	35	-28	RotoRank	For middle infielders, its better to be more conservative than for a fantasy baseball owner to overpay.
Helton, Todd	COL	129	81	109	48	20	RotoRank	Helton's past accomplishments keep him artificially high on the ADP lists of fantasy baseball owners.
Ibanez, Raul	SEA	130

Introduction

Average Draft Pick Projections

RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Projections

Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Comparison

Summary of Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Results

Details of Best Fantasy Baseball Predictor Results