Introduction
When devising your draft strategy for 2008, it is always a
good idea to take a step back from the details and get a look at the bigger
picture. If you base your draft
strategy on the fact of getting one or two key players to build around, then
you are putting yourself at a disadvantage in leagues that have a high
percentage of experienced and skilled fantasy baseball owners.
I developed the position scarcity chart as part of the
RotoRank system, and the following report can be easily generated at the click
of a button for any league configuration that RotoRank supports.
The following article details how I plan to use the Position
Scarcity Report in 2008.
2008 Position Scarcity Report
|
|
Round
|
3B
|
OF
|
SS
|
2B
|
1B
|
SP
|
DH
|
CL
|
C
|
MR
|
|
A+
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
A
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
A-
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
|
B+
|
4-5
|
4
|
10
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
B
|
6-7
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
12
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
0
|
|
B-
|
8-9
|
1
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
2
|
|
C+
|
10-12
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
2
|
12
|
1
|
5
|
|
C
|
13-15
|
3
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
5
|
|
C-
|
16-18
|
1
|
9
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
9
|
2
|
8
|
3
|
9
|
|
D+
|
19-22
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
16
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
18
|
|
D
|
23-26
|
2
|
10
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
3
|
28
|
|
D-
|
27-30
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
40
|
|
F+
|
31-35
|
2
|
9
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
41
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
22
|
|
F
|
36-40
|
6
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
50
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
7
|
|
F-
|
41-45
|
1
|
29
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
36
|
0
|
0
|
12
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Required
|
23
|
75
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
90
|
15
|
45
|
30
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top 15
|
12
|
54
|
11
|
9
|
14
|
44
|
11
|
50
|
8
|
12
|
|
|
Bottom
15
|
7
|
30
|
3
|
9
|
5
|
36
|
7
|
20
|
13
|
95
|
|
|
Undrafted
|
9
|
50
|
9
|
8
|
11
|
127
|
3
|
2
|
21
|
30
|
The power of the RotoRank Position Scarcity Chart can really
be showcased in deeper leagues like the NFBC, since just a slight edge draft
value can be converted into a league victory.
The NFBC is a 15-Team Mixed League 5x5 Rotisserie League
that requires teams to start 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Like most leagues, infield positions have
less depth than Outfielders and Starting Pitchers. Unlike smaller leagues, Middle Relievers can actually be utilized
to help keep your team ERA and WHIP lower.
Catcher
Obviously, catchers are quite scarce in most leagues, but
especially in the NFBC. With only 8
above average (C or better) catchers available, and each team needing to start
two catchers, many teams will be fielding sub-par talent at that position. Teams that can grab one catcher by round 9
will have a slight advantage. If you
could manage to lock up two catchers in before round 19, then you should have
an advantage over others in your league.
Second Base
As usual, Second Base is also quite scarce, but since teams
only need one second baseman to have a legal roster, 9 of 15 teams should be
able to lock up a quality starter by round 12.
Second base has quite a few more stars than catcher, so a team that
locks up two of the top 9 players before round 13 would have an advantage later
in the draft.
Shortstop
Shortstop in next in line, but it has 4 elite players in
it. Shortstop has more “A” quality
players in it than 3B, 2B, and C. It is
also just behind the traditional deeper positions of 1B and SP. A team that gets one of the top 4 shortstops
should have a slight advantage over the rest of the league.
Third Base
Third Base is another interesting position. The player buckets seem to be rather
bunched. Normally talent is spread
across all rounds, but the 10 of the 12 above average third baseman are graded
the 3 groups: three in the “A+” grade; four in the “B+” grade; and three in the
“C” grade. This is the type of
groupings that lead to position runs during a league draft, and if you aren’t
careful, you could get suckered into taking a player in a lower grade just so
you can lock up a “quality” third baseman.
If you don’t group players into proper value points, then you are likely
to lose key opportunities to maximize value during your draft.
First Base
Of all of the infield positions, First Base is the deepest
with 14 above average players in the top 15 rounds. This means that only one team stands to be at a slight
disadvantage at this position after the draft.
However, since the difference between the 14th best First
Baseman and the 15th best First Baseman is going to be slight, this
is likely a position you would like to let slide during your draft. You are more likely to get surprise value at
First Base from a late round sleeper pick or free agent pickup, then any other
infield position. Case in point: Carlos
Pena, Ryan Garko, and James Loney in 2007; Daric Barton, Joey Votto, Kendry
Morales, or someone similar in 2008.
Starting Pitcher
Starting Pitching is surprisingly scarce according to my
projections in 2008. Less than half of
the starting pitchers needed to fill the legal roster of an NFBC team is considered
to be above average; therefore, many teams are likely to ruin their drafts in
the later stages of the draft by selecting pitchers who will have a negative
impact on their team. This was
definitely my “Achilles heel” in 2007.
During the first month of 2007, my team was sitting in the Top 10
overall, but as injuries struck and my bottom tier pitchers became exposed, I
dropped to the middle of the league and couldn’t climb out of the ERA and WHIP
hole that my C- grade pitchers dug for me.
2007 was the first season of NFBC where I actually realized
that Middle Relievers are actually a worthwhile commodity in deeper
leagues. In the past, I have often
drafted better pitching than most teams in a deeper league, and then attempted
to get my value and sleepers in hitting.
The strong pitching focus may work in smaller leagues and in weaker
auction leagues, but when facing very good and competitive owners, you don’t
get much room for draft errors. Last
year, my 4th round selection of Roy Halladay really backfired on me,
and exposed my weaker starting pitchers more than expected. This year, I will take fewer chances on late
round starting pitchers and select elite middle relievers instead. There isn’t much upside in a middle
reliever, but there isn’t much downside either.
Closers
This position does not appear to be as scarce as in the
past, but statistical numbers can be deceiving at times. There are 9 elite closers going into the
2008 season, and another 11 closers with firm grasps on their jobs. With only 20 closers accounted for in the
top 7 rounds, this means there is a lot of unpredictability in the remaining 10
slots needed by NFBC team owners to field a team with at least 2 closers. The recent trend of teams using several
closers during the season (due to injury and/or poor performances) has made it
difficult for owners to lock up their Save numbers. Many owners decide to take only one elite closer during the top
15 rounds, and then attempt to strike gold by selecting good middle relievers
on teams with a volatile closer holding the job. With the high turnover of closers during the last few years, due
to unexpected injuries and poor performances, it is easy to see why owners have
been de-emphasizing the need for two elite closers on their team.
Outfield
Every year you can count on Outfield being one of the top
two deepest positions in your league.
Even in a 15-team league that requires each team to start 5 outfielders
in a valid roster like the NFBC, outfield still reflects a deep talent
pool. Outfield appears to be a little
deeper this year, since many teams decided to use young speedsters over older
veterans in 2007. The influx of platoon
outfielders that have either speed or power has made it a little easier to find
specialists in the later rounds of the draft.
These platoon situations have also helped to inflate the value of
full-time starting outfielders that have a mix of speed and power. Players like Chris B Young for Arizona who
hit for a paltry .237 batting average in 2007, still provided their owners with
a lot of value by collecting 32 home runs and 27 stolen bases as a full-time
starter. Chris B Young is not the ideal
example of a Top 100 player, but his contributions to everything but BA helps deepen
the talent pool at the outfield position.
Outfielders in a platoon situation, like Kenny Lofton, Coco Crisp, Corey
Patterson, Willy Taveras and other comparable outfielders can be viewed as
valuable contributors in stolen bases and runs scored with only 400 at-bats,
because they have much better batting averages than Chris B Young’s .237 over
569 at-bats (ouch)! Other outfielders
who contributed in multiple categories but decimated your batting average in
2007: Gary Matthews, Pat Burrell, Mike Cameron, Josh Willingham, Andruw Jones,
Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, etc.
This means that the truly elite outfielders are going to be
hard to pass up, and players that you may have decided to overlook in the past,
due to uncertain playing time, might actually be worthwhile selections in the
later rounds of your draft.
Middle Reliever
On a closing note, the new feature of RotoRank to split out
closers from middle relievers should help teams in deeper leagues. The are 12 middle relievers in rounds with
rankings that are above average for a pitcher, due to their sub-2.00 ERA and
sub-1.000 WHIP over 60-80 innings pitched that should be targeted for selection
over the 36 below average pitchers grouped in rounds 16 to 30. Since most of these middle relievers
normally go undrafted, you can look to spend your mid-draft picks on better
talent, then just fill out your rotation with two or three middle relievers at
the end of the draft. This is a
strategy that everyone should consider in very competitive leagues where WHIP
and ERA are scored for pitchers.
Conclusion
The position scarcity chart is simply a tool that can make
your draft preparation a much simpler task.
However, like any tool, if it isn’t used properly, you’ll get poor
results. I have tried to create a
format that is simple to use for fantasy baseball owners at any experience
level to use.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.