Well, I've learned a lot in the last 5 years playing against
the best fantasy baseball competition in the world. The National Fantasy Baseball Championship continues to be a
world-class event and I really enjoyed my trip to Chicago. I put a lot of time preparing for the 2008
draft; however, it is impossible to plan the unexpected twists and turns a
draft will take. I drafted an above
average team according to average draft picks for an NFBC scoring league, but I
didn’t have the category balance that I was targeting for 2008.
Take a look at my team, and then continue on to read my
breakdown of the draft.
|
Rd
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
Name
|
Team
|
Roto
Rank
|
ADP
|
ADP Value
|
Roto Value
|
|
3
|
40
|
C
|
Martin,
Russell
|
LA
|
26
|
30
|
10
|
14
|
|
16
|
231
|
C
|
Towles,
JR
|
HOU
|
176
|
198
|
33
|
55
|
|
1
|
10
|
1B
|
Howard,
Ryan
|
PHI
|
7
|
10
|
0
|
3
|
|
2
|
21
|
2B
|
Upton, BJ
|
TB
|
36
|
23
|
-2
|
-15
|
|
4
|
51
|
SS
|
Tulowitzki,
Troy
|
COL
|
40
|
41
|
10
|
11
|
|
12
|
171
|
3B
|
Fields,
Josh
|
CWS
|
162
|
173
|
-2
|
9
|
|
7
|
100
|
MI
|
Kendrick,
Howie
|
ANA
|
86
|
116
|
-16
|
14
|
|
14
|
201
|
CI
|
Glaus,
Troy
|
STL
|
143
|
196
|
5
|
58
|
|
8
|
111
|
OF
|
Matsui,
Hideki
|
NYY
|
79
|
89
|
22
|
32
|
|
13
|
190
|
OF
|
Cuddyer,
Michael
|
MIN
|
119
|
186
|
4
|
71
|
|
15
|
220
|
OF
|
Upton,
Justin
|
ARI
|
218
|
213
|
7
|
2
|
|
18
|
261
|
OF
|
Matthews,
Gary
|
ANA
|
204
|
221
|
40
|
57
|
|
19
|
280
|
OF
|
Rasmus,
Colby
|
STL
|
242
|
266
|
14
|
38
|
|
20
|
291
|
UH
|
Jacobs,
Mike
|
FLA
|
235
|
278
|
13
|
56
|
|
Rd
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
Name
|
Team
|
Roto
Rank
|
ADP
|
Draft Value
|
Roto Value
|
|
9
|
130
|
SP
|
Cain,
Matt
|
SF
|
127
|
127
|
3
|
3
|
|
11
|
160
|
SP
|
Perez,
Oliver
|
NYM
|
121
|
170
|
-10
|
39
|
|
17
|
250
|
SP
|
Blanton,
Joe
|
OAK
|
224
|
204
|
46
|
26
|
|
23
|
340
|
SP
|
Saunders,
Joe
|
ANA
|
252
|
345
|
-5
|
88
|
|
24
|
351
|
SP
|
Glavine,
Tom
|
ATL
|
237
|
283
|
68
|
114
|
|
25
|
370
|
SP
|
Washburn,
Jarrod
|
SEA
|
337
|
384
|
-14
|
33
|
|
5
|
70
|
RP
|
Rodriguez,
Francisco
|
ANA
|
67
|
69
|
1
|
3
|
|
6
|
81
|
RP
|
Nathan,
Joe
|
MIN
|
73
|
65
|
16
|
8
|
|
10
|
141
|
RP
|
Cordero,
Chad
|
WAS
|
153
|
140
|
1
|
-12
|
|
|
|
|
Overall
Fantasy Draft Value (Pick - ADP)
|
244
|
707
|
When competing against 390 teams for an overall $100,000.00
grand prize, you need to have a solid plan, good research, and plenty of luck.
My plan was to avoid injury prone players, select a few
players with potential upside beyond my projections, and hit certain key
targets that would allow me to compete when the stats were ranked nationally.
I was targeting the following statistical benchmarks for my
team:
Hitting = .280 BA, 290 HR, 1100 R, 1100 RBI, 180 SB
Pitching = 90 W, 90 SV, 1100 K, 3.600 ERA, 1.200 WHIP.
I exceeded my Homerun targets by at least 30, but I missed
my targets in stolen bases by 50. With
only 130 projected Stolen Bases, I will need to get a lot of breaks to compete
nationally.
I definitely have a team that can compete for my league's
$5,000.00 first place prize, but when your stats are ranked against 390 versus
15, it is hard to score below average in any category, especially one like stolen
bases.
Even though I missed some opportunities to hit my desired
targets, I still outperformed the Average Draft Picks of most drafters in the
NFBC. Here is a round by round analysis
of my draft.
Round 1: I had a choice of Chase Utley, Carl Crawford,
Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. I
really wanted a 3B, and had anticipated getting Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun
with the 10th pick, but they went 6th and 7th respectively. Howard is having a great spring and he is
playing for a big contract. Of the 4 I
mentioned, Howard has the best chance to reach top 3 overall by simply raising
his average to the .300 level.
Round 2: I
wanted someone with 30-30 potential at a scarce position, so I was targeting
Brandon Phillips and BJ Upton. Phillips
went to Team 12 Pick 20, and I got Upton.
Round 3: In
my mock drafts, I was targeting Corey Hart, Eric Byrnes, or Bobby Abreu for my
3rd round pick. Hart and Byrnes went to
Teams 7 and 8 respectively in Round 3.
However, when the players you are targeting aren't on the board that
usually means some other players you like have slipped. In this case, Russell Martin, Troy
Tulowitzki, and Bobby Abreu were all on the board. Russell Martin was the highest rated on my board and by the 2008
ADP. Getting a 20-20 hitter at the very
scarce catcher position, that's a pick I can utilize.
Round 4: I was planning on Ian Kinsler being my 4th
round pick, since I think he is capable of a 25-25 season, but Team 15 took him
at the Round 3 and 4 turn. However, to
my surprise, Jeter, Abreu, and Tulowitzki were still available. I went with Tulowitzki for his strength at a
weak position and his 2008 upside.
Round 5: I hate chasing pitching late, so I was
targeting an elite closer or elite starter in round 5. Starting pitching was drafted early in this
league, so I had my choice of Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan. Both of those guys are studs, but I took
K-Rod for his ability to get 45+ saves for a playoff contending team.
Round 6: I thought I'd take a starting pitcher here,
but Teams 11-15 passed on Joe Nathan in favor of a starting pitcher, so I
decided to lock up saves and selected Nathan.
That kept me from needing to rely on guys who could lose their jobs by
July, like Todd Jones, Joe Borowski, George Sherril, etc.
Round 7: Howie Kendrick was not an ideal choice, but
I like his upside to be a possible 10 HR and 25 SB middle infielder with a .300
batting average, so I took a chance. I
could have taken Brad Hawpe, Hideki Matsui or Roy Halladay.
Round 8: Hideki Matsui was the highest player on my
board, and was approaching a 2 round slide, so I selected him without
addressing my real need for speed or starting pitching. In hindsight, a better pick would have been
a starting pitcher or one of the speedy outfielders.
Round 9: At this point, I was desperate for a
starting pitcher with 200 Strikeout with respectable ERA and WHIP. Matt Cain was the highest pitcher on my
board, and the ADP said he'd be taken soon.
This focus on pitching caused me to lose sight of the tougher stolen
base category. This is the point in the
draft where having a co-owner to help you see the bigger picture in a high
stakes fast moving draft can be a huge advantage. I took Cain, then Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, and Orlando Cabrera
went immediately after my pick. I was
hoping Bourn would make it back to me in round 10, but that obviously didn't
happen, and I likely lost my shot at the national title.
Round 10: With my projected 10 round picks off the
board, I was looking at Ryan Garko and Chad Cordero. I selected Cordero to put pressure on other teams to chase weaker
closers and leave me to sift through the next tier of starting pitchers.
Round 11: My plan worked to some extent, and I got
Oliver Perez as another starting pitcher with 175+ K potential.
Round 12: I thought I needed some power at 3B, and I
wanted a player with upside, so I selected Josh Fields. The only concern I have is that Crede is a
better fielder, so until Crede is dealt, Josh Fields will be in a platoon
situation.
Round 13: I was looking for players with the most
value, and I felt Cuddyer was extremely underrated by the ADP. I got a very solid outfielder with some
upside potential over my 20 HR projection for 2008.
Round 14: I wasn't completely satisfied that I
addressed my needs at 3B, so I took a chance on a veteran player who could be
dominant if healthy. Troy Glaus looks
healthy this spring, so if he can maintain it for the 2008 season, he will be
good for 35+ Homeruns.
Round 15: I didn't want to give up on speed, so I started
reviewing my printout of spring stats for possible players to select, and
Justin Upton looked promising. With
Eric Byrnes and Chris Young running so often in 2007, Upton could also reach
20+ Stolen Bases in 2008. Besides, how
often can you draft brothers in a fantasy baseball draft?
Round 16: I needed a second catcher, and there were a
few young guys I really liked. I
selected JR Towles based on his good spring numbers and the fact he'll play in
a hitter's park.
Round 17: I still needed starting pitching, and
Blanton was shouting out to me, as he was a full grade higher than every other
SP on my board. If he gets dealt to a
contender, his value could increase dramatically.
Round 18: Gary Mathews was the best player on the
board with a potential for a 20-20 season.
I'm not sure if he'll continue to produce in his post-steroid form, but
in the Angels lineup, its hard not to out-produce the average OF.
Round 19: Still needing speed, I took a flier on a
rookie in Colby Rasmus. My league was
taking rookies early, but Rasmus slid past the typical ADP. With his good spring, I think he'll
eventually make it to the majors in 2008.
Round 20: This late in the draft, you are just
looking to fill out your roster with the best available players in your remaining
open positions. Mike Jacobs fit the
bill, and he even has some upside in 2008.
Round 21: I selected Akinori Iwamura as my first
reserve. If Rasmus starts the year in
the minors, I move Upton to the OF, and Iwamura into the 2B after he earns his
eligibility.
Round 22: Another rookie hitter I wanted for 2008 was
Chase Headley. He is one of the top
hitting prospects in MLB farm systems, and his hot spring coupled with the
Padres DL issues has earned him the starting LF job. If he continues to hit through April, he may get 20+ HR in 2008
season.
Round 23: Still needing 3 pitchers to round out my
starting rotation, I selected Joe Saunders from the Angels. Saunders is pitching well this spring, and
he has upside pitching for the contending Angels.
Round 24: Tom Glavine was still on the board for some
reason, and his spring stats aren't awful.
It's hard to pass on a HOF pitcher this late in the draft. He could very well be the best value pick in
my draft.
Round 25: I finally completed my starting lineup with
Jarrod Washburn. Capable of winning 15
games in 2008, he is not a bad choice for your 6th starting pitcher.
Round 26: Looking for potential rookie stars, I
reviewed spring stats and noticed Dana Eveland performing extremely well this
spring. He could be this year's Fausto
Carmona, so if Blanton is dealt, look for Eveland to make an impact on the
Athletics starting rotation!
Round 27-30: I passed on rookie 2B/SS Velez in Round
27 hoping I'd get him one round later, but Team 15 selected him. Velez has 7 Stolen Bases in the spring, and
if he wins a starting job in San Francisco, I may have made my 2nd biggest
mistake of the draft. A player who can
steal 30 bases at a middle infield spot would have been perfect for my
team. Well, obviously I've still
haven’t achieved perfection, but I think my team will be very competitive in
2008. At this point, I expect to cut my
last 4 draft picks in Week 1 of the season, once I see which starting pitchers
have won jobs, or if any surprise rookies surface.
Feel free to leave your thoughts on my team. Only time will tell how well my team
actually performs, but like everyone else who took part in the National Fantasy
Baseball Championship, I think I have a shot to win some money in 2008.
Good Luck to all of you in your drafts!