Occasionally, some of the greatest fantasy baseball draft day bargains are a result of good players returning to a performance level they maintained before a major injury. There is quite a long list of players that missed a large portion of last season or had poor fantasy baseball performances as a result of an injury.
Some of these players returning from injury are likely to go within a round or two of their fantasy baseball draft positions in 2008, since they don’t have a trend of being injured:
1. C Jorge Posada (NYY) – If healthy, 90+ Runs and 90+ RBI is not a stretch in the new Bronx Bombers lineup.
2. C Victor Martinez (CLE) – Cleveland will likely use Martinez more at 1B and DH this year. .300+ BA with 20+ Homeruns are reasonable targets, but it won’t separate him greatly from the rest of the unexpectedly deep catcher position.
3. DH Travis Hafner (CLE) – Hafner, like Adam Dunn and Richie Sexson, was built to hit Homeruns; however, that power fades quickly with a major injury! If he is healthy this spring 30+ Homeruns is probably guaranteed, but don’t expect the .300 BA he posted in the past in 2009.
4. DH David Ortiz (BOS) – He played better than most on this list in 2008, but far from earning his weight as a Top 25 fantasy baseball player.
5. SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Unlike 2008, I am going to be a little more conservative with my projections for members of the Rockies. Without Matt Holliday, the lineup is far less threatening, so look for .290 BA and 20+ HR at the top end for Tulowitzki.
6. 3B Chone Figgins (LAA) – 50+ SB is not out of the question, if he can get 550+ AB.
7. SS Rafael Furcal (LAD) – I wouldn’t expect a .347 batting average, but 100+ Runs and 30+ Stolen Bases is not out of reach.
8. OF Hideki Matsui (NYY) – If he can stay healthy for 500 AB, with a majority at DH, then 20+ HR and a .300 BA is definitely possible.
9. SP Erik Bedard (SEA) – I am projecting that Bedard will return to form, but he may not have dominating fantasy baseball stats. Look for a return to the Top 100 of the final fantasy baseball player rankings in 2009.
Many of the following baseball players are risky picks for 2009, so I would not base my fantasy baseball draft strategy on having a lot of these players compete for comeback of the year honors, like Cliff Lee achieved in 2008; however, I am going to follow these guys throughout Spring Training and I will keep adjusting their fantasy baseball projections based on their progress through the end of March 2009.
1. SP Chad Carpenter (STL) – There is a rumor that St Louis may move Carpenter to the closer role, which could make him a safer fantasy baseball option in 2009.
2. 1B Todd Helton (COL) – I’m not sure his back will ever allow him to hit over .300 again, but if he has a good spring, he could be a bargain in the late rounds of a fantasy baseball draft.
3. 2B Marcus Giles (FA) – Not technically injured in 2008, but his fantasy basbeall performance was not up to par since his injuries in 2007.
4. 3B Eric Chavez (OAK) – Chavez may not even get drafted in your fantasy baseball league, but if he can manage to stay healthy for 500 AB, he likely posts 20+ HR.
5. 3B/1B Hank Blalock (TEX) – Blalock has good upside hitting in Arlington, so he will post good numbers if he stays healthy.
6. OF Moises Alou (FA) – Very old and very fragile, so he is likely closer to retiring than to being a reliable fantasy baseball option.
7. OF Barry Bonds (FA) – Rumor is that he wants to increase his all-time Homerun total, probably due to the fact that Alex Rodriguez is likely to break the current record total set by Bonds…
8. OF Jacque Jones (FLA) – If he plays, he could net you 15 HR and 15 SB, but FLA has a lot of outfield talent making Jones a risky fantasy baseball option to start 2009.
9. OF Jerry Owens (CWS) – If he is healthy, he will get 500+ AB and 35+ SB and make a legitimate impact on your fantasy baseball team.
10. OF Andruw Jones (ATL?) – With his release from the Dodgers, the Braves could get Jones at the league minimum, and maybe he could return to his Atlanta form?
11. OF Ryan Freel (BAL) – Could steal 30+ SB, if he can get 500 AB.
12. OF Scott Podsednik (COL) – He is a long shot to get playing time, since Colorado has a plethora of young outfielders.
13. OF Michael Cuddyer (MIN) – I had him slated for 25+ HR and 100 RBI in 2008, so I like his chances for 18+ HR and 80+ RBI in 2009, if he gets 550 AB.
14. SS Alex Gonzalez (CIN) – If he is healthy, look for 15+ HR at the scarce fantasy baseball position of Shortstop.
15. SS Khalil Greene (STL) – Look for a 20+ HR season will a full season in a good lineup, he should be a solid play for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.
16. RP Jason Isringhausen (FA) – Depending on his health and where he lands, he could post 25+ Saves.
17. RP Chad Cordero (FA) – Similar to Isringhausen, but he has youth on his side. Depending on his health and where he lands, he could post 25+ Saves.
18. SP Dontrelle Willis (DET) – He just isn’t as bad as he was in 2008. Look to see how he does in Spring before you assume he can return to form for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.
19. Derrick Turnbow (TEX) – If he has value, it will be in the second half of the season and only if CJ Wilson has any issues.
20. Mark Mulder (FA) – He may go to the Brewers or Oakland, it depends on where everyone else lands and if he is actually healthy.
21. Tom Glavine (ATL) – Spring training should shed some light if he will have any value in 2009.
22. John Smoltz (BOS) – He will be valuable if healthy, at least in the Win column.
23. Tim Hudson – Expected to miss the first half of the season, so he will likely be a FA to start 2009.
24. Freddy Garcia (FA) – If he is healthy, he could win 10+ games with a playoff contender.
25. Rich Hill (CHC) – He seems to be having control issues right now in the winter league, but he could return to the majors if an injury hits the Cubs starting rotation.
26. SP Carl Pavano (CLE) – As a fifth starter, he should have no pressure on him, and that is the only time he ever performed up to his potential.
27. SP Pedro Martinez (FA) – There are a lot of HOF players on this list, and the thought of a young Pedro seems to always cloud everyone’s judgment when it comes to fantasy baseball.
28. SP Bartolo Colon (CWS) – He hasn’t pitched over 100 innings for over 3 years, but if he looks good in Spring Training, he could have some value as a fantasy baseball player.
Even if you decide not to draft any of these players during the draft, I am sure that some of them will remain free agents throughout the month of April. If you keep an eye on these players as the season progresses, you can grab one of them if they have a few good weeks that could indicate a rebound from their off years…