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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP Bargain Players

Posted by on Saturday, February 21, 2009 (EST)

If you are looking to use Mock Drafts and Average Draft Pick values to improve your draft day selections, look how RotoRank reports make it easy for you to generate this valuable collection of fantasy baseball draft data.

Each year I like to identify which fantasy baseball players may generate a great fantasy baseball statistical performance compared to other players drafted in the same round.

 

The players with a yellow background will likely be drafted at a premium price (a “Com” fantasy draft pick higher than the corresponding RotoRank pick value for the player).  The players with a green background a players similar to the premium fantasy baseball players, but they can usually be drafted 3 to 5 rounds later than the more popular superstar.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

AB

Hits

BA

HR

R

RBI

SB

OPS

 

B

98

123

C

Martinez, Victor

CLE

30

532

147

0.278

18

70

85

0

0.809

 

B-

122

167

C

Doumit, Ryan

PIT

27

471

137

0.291

15

71

69

2

0.791

 

 

B-

127

186

C

Wieters, Matt

BAL

22

436

122

0.282

19

49

90

0

0.775

 

C+

167

204

C

Iannetta, Chris

COL

25

376

106

0.282

19

55

71

0

0.92

 

The catcher position does not appear to be as scarce as past four fantasy baseball drafts.  There seems to be a trend by MLB teams to lean toward more offensive minded catchers in the last year, relegating defensive catchers to a support role.  If you were polling the casual fantasy baseball owner on how to rank the above four catchers, you would likely see Victor Martinez at the top of most lists, although some over-zealous owners may put Wieters number one in hope of getting the next Geovany Soto…  On closer examination of the above list, you will see that is actually not much difference between the power projections of each player, so the main value variations depend on Batting Average and Runs Scored.  I would consider Doumit and Iannetta relative bargains, compared to Martinez and Wieters.  Doumit and Iannetta are both in the prime age range, and have enough major league experience to justify their 2009 fantasy baseball projections.

 

If there are other quality players available on the board when you are considering Victor Martinez or Matt Wieters, and you see that both Doumit and Iannetta are still on the fantasy baseball draft board, you may want to make a safer selection.  If you decide to grab Victor Martinez and/or Matt Wieters, they could pay big dividends, but you need to realize they both carry a heavy for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

AB

Hits

BA

HR

R

RBI

SB

OPS

B-

130

114

OF

Damon, Johnny

NYY

35

504

151

0.300

12

85

63

17

0.799

B-

131

176

OF

Winn, Randy

SF

34

628

182

0.291

10

84

57

25

0.758

 

The comparison of Johnny Damon and Randy Winn provides a classic example of two players who are nearly identical in age, talent, and production.  Damon is a past fantasy baseball stud who is playing on a high profile major league baseball team.  Fantasy baseball owners who remember Johnny Damon’s glory years or who view the Yankees lineup as a collection of must have fantasy baseball players are likely to pay a premium for Damon in 2009.  Randy Winn will produce similar fantasy baseball statistics to Johnny Damon in 2009, but you can get Winn at least three rounds later than Damon.  If you are considering Johnny Damon with a fantasy baseball draft selection near pick 120, I would look at more promising alternatives, then target drafting Randy Winn near pick 160 of your fantasy baseball draft.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

C+

137

182

SP

Duchscherer, Justin

OAK

31

160

56

133

11

11

3.15

1.144

0

C+

138

98

SP

Liriano, Francisco

MIN

25

167

72

147

13

8

3.88

1.162

0

 

As you can see, RotoRank reports allow you to identify all kinds of potential bargains in your draft.  Comparing Justin Duchscherer and Francisco Liriano is a classic example of the premium fantasy baseball owners place on youth.  When healthy, Liriano has the potential to be a dominant fantasy baseball pitcher and major league CY Young candidate.  Duchscherer is coming off a career year; therefore, many experienced fantasy baseball owners are leery of using a high pick on him.  Liriano’s past injuries will also concern many owners as well, but his potential seems to be blinding most fantasy baseball owners to the risk he will carry in 2009.  As of now, you can get Duchscherer about 45 picks later than Liriano, so unless you have a strong feeling about Liriano in 2009 or he slides another 30 picks in your draft, then I’d look for a safer fantasy baseball draft selection near pick 135.

 

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

C+

172

195

SP

Harang, Aaron

CIN

30

224

107

168

13

13

4.299

1.228

0

C+

173

271

SP

Johnson, Randy

SF

45

184

80

173

11

11

3.913

1.239

0

 

Randy Johnson is not usually someone I would consider a bargain, especially since he is a big risk at age 45.  Harang is much younger, but he is coming off an awful 2008 fantasy baseball season.  At pick 180, you are not paying a large premium for a pitcher of Harang’s fantasy baseball potential; however, if your team has some other needs at the time Harang is drawing your interest, you may want to consider that you can get similar stats from Randy Johnson 50 to 80 picks later in your fantasy baseball draft.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

 

C+

180

286

SP

Wellemeyer, Todd

STL

30

191

79

134

13

9

3.723

1.257

0

 

C

181

208

SP

Buehrle, Mark

CWS

29

218

92

140

15

12

3.798

1.339

0

 

 

C

182

236

SP

Kershaw, Clayton

LA

20

199

94

187

12

8

4.251

1.281

0

 

Wellemeyer, Buehrle, and Kershaw are all similarly valued based on RotoRank 2009 projections, but each have vastly different fantasy baseball draft values according to the Average Draft Picks generated by the mock drafts that I have done in 2009. Wellemeyer appears to be the biggest bargain of the group, but all three have a higher RotoRank fantasy baseball draft value than the 2009 Average Draft Picks.  I would try to get Kershaw at pick 210-220, but I would be happy to get Wellemeyer between picks 250 and 260 in my fantasy baseball drafts.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

C+

174

187

CL

Ryan, BJ

TOR

33

58

19

58

4

4

2.948

1.276

35

 

C

185

225

CL

Capps, Matt

PIT

25

53

18

39

4

3

3.057

0.981

31

 

 

Closers will vary drastically in value during any fantasy baseball draft.  The elite fantasy baseball closers usually get their additional value by posting 60+ innings with a great ERA and WHIP.  However, when building your fantasy baseball team to address certain rotisserie scoring categories, the main focus for your fantasy baseball Closer selections will be their ability to get saves and the likelihood that they will keep their job throughout the entire 2009 season.  Capps is a relative bargain when you consider that he has a virtual lock on his job for 2009, he is only 25, and he has good skills. 

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

C

216

196

SP

Garza, Matt

TB

25

184

76

128

11

9

3.717

1.245

0

 

C

217

296

SP

Bonderman, Jeremy

DET

26

213

102

132

13

12

4.31

1.225

0

 

 

Bonderman had an awful 2008 that ended in surgery, but if he were healthy entering the 2009 season, I’d rather draft him 70 to 80 picks later than you can get Garza who is pitching in a much tougher division.

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

C-

262

319

SP

Bush, Dave

MIL

29

185

86

109

9

10

4.184

1.141

0

 

C-

263

219

SP

Myers, Brett

PHI

28

190

96

163

13

13

4.547

1.379

0

 

 

The primary difference between Brett Myers and Dave Bush in 2009 is their perceived fantasy baseball potential.  At one point, a few years ago, Brett Myers was considered a top 10 pitcher who was a lock to collect 200+ strikeouts per season, but the last two seasons have proved that Myers will likely never reach elite fantasy baseball draft status again.  On the other hand, Dave Bush has never been highly regarded as a key fantasy baseball player, but he posts very consistent rotisserie baseball statistics each year.  I would target Dave Bush near pick 280 and use my early picks on more valuable and more reliable hitting talent.

 

 

 

 

Grd

Roto

Com

Pos

Name

Team

Age

IP

ER

K

W

L

ERA

WHIP

SV

D+

329

415

SP

Padilla, Vicente

TEX

31

171

90

127

14

8

4.737

1.462

0

 

D+

330

260

SP

Cueto, Johnny

CIN

23

174

93

158

11

14

4.81

1.414

0

 

 

What is the difference between Cueto and Padilla in 2009, besides their age?  Well, Cueto will likely be drafted, and perhaps a lot higher than pick 260 and Padilla will go undrafted.  If healthy, Padilla will contribute to your strikeouts and wins total, but he could also destroy your ERA and WHIP fantasy baseball rotisserie league rankings.  Both of these pitchers are better suited for fantasy point leagues where ERA and WHIP do not wipe out their contributions in strikeouts and wins.  Late in the draft, I would still consider Padilla worthy of a reserve spot, just in case he puts a season together like Justin Duchscherer had in 2008 at the very same age.


 

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