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NFBC Main Event Fantasy Baseball Draft Results
Posted by
rotorank
on
Sunday, March 22, 2009 (EST)
See how Gerry ScottoDiMarco applied his patented Expert Draft Guide to his big money fanatsy baseball league entry.
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The last few years have not gone well for me in the National
Fantasy Baseball Championship. The
strategies I used over the past few years were dependent upon me getting elite
players at scarce positions, including closer, and getting late round value in
starting pitching. The pure focus on
position scarcity strategy is better suited for small leagues that allow you to
overcome injuries to your key players due to the deep free agent talent pool.
Lat year, 7 of my first 10 picks spent time on the DL,
including Troy Tulowitzki, Howie Kendrick, Hideki Matsui, Chad Cordero, etc.
and many of my 2008 fantasy baseball pitchers (Oliver Perez, Matt Cain, Joe
Blanton, etc.) did not meet my projections in one or more categories.
This year, I decided to go back to the core strength of
RotoRank, which allows owners to spot value picks at every position during any
fantasy baseball draft. The core
strategy is to build on power hitters and power pitchers early, then use the
RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft Guide to uncover value picks at your
team’s remaining positions of need without having to reach for players not
worthy of draft selection with the current fantasy baseball draft round.
The following is a review of my NFBC Draft held on 3/21/2009
using RotoRank Report 11. Report 11 was
added this year and it includes a lot of additional information that my
previous reports did not include, including player age and SHARB/SKEWP Fantasy
Baseball Rankings.
Each row will display the round the player was selected, the
actual draft slot for the player, the RotoRank Value for the player, the
Average Draft Pick (ADP) for the player, and the respective variances (positive
values indicate a draft value profit, while negative values indicate a draft
value loss).
|
Rd
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
Name
|
Team
|
Alt
Pos
|
Roto
|
ADP
|
Rvar
|
Avar
|
Comments
|
|
10
|
146
|
C
|
Wieters,
Matt
|
BAL
|
(22) []
|
142
|
171
|
4
|
-25
|
He will
likely start in Minors, so that Baltimore can extend his service time. I'll need to find a fill-in via Free
Agency.
|
|
17
|
245
|
C
|
Pierzynski,
AJ
|
CWS
|
(32) []
|
222
|
236
|
23
|
9
|
I paid
fair market value for a reliable catcher.
|
|
3
|
35
|
1B
|
Morneau,
Justin
|
MIN
|
(27)
[H+A+R+B]
|
28
|
27
|
7
|
8
|
It
appears that I got a slight bargain, if Morneau hits his RotoRank
projections.
|
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2
|
26
|
2B
|
Phillips,
Brandon
|
CIN
|
(27)
[S+B]
|
29
|
31
|
-3
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-5
|
I was
considering Morneau in Round 2,but I saw that Adrian Gonzalez and Aramis
Ramirez usually slid to Round 3, so I chose to go with a 20 HR & 20 SB
threat at a scarce position.
|
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12
|
176
|
SS
|
Theriot,
Ryan
|
CHC
|
(33)
[S+A]
|
152
|
192
|
24
|
-16
|
I was
desperate for speed, and Theriot was a good fit. The power SS went earlier than I had expected.
|
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1
|
5
|
3B
|
Wright,
David
|
NYM
|
(26)
[H+A+R+B]
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
3B David
Wright was a pleasant surprise at Pick 5 in Round 1. I had originally considered OF Grady
Sizemore and OF Ryan Braun. Getting
speed at a corner position is always a nice bonus.
|
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15
|
215
|
2B
|
Matsui,
Kazuo
|
HOU
|
(33) [S]
|
166
|
173
|
49
|
42
|
Kaz
Matsui slid about 3 rounds, and I like getting speed in the MI positions.
|
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26
|
386
|
3B
|
LaRoche,
Andy
|
PIT
|
(25) []
|
537
|
518
|
-151
|
-132
|
Andy
LaRoche is having a great spring, so hopefully he will keep his job long
enough to get the 16 HR I projected for 2009. The variance does not really apply to LaRoche, since he is
what I consider to be a dark horse sleeper.
|
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4
|
56
|
OF
|
Hart,
Corey
|
MIL
|
(26)
[S+B]
|
55
|
51
|
1
|
5
|
Corey
Hart is having a huge spring, and I thought I might need to take him in Round
3, if I really wanted him. I resisted
the temptation and was lucky that he made it back to me in Round 4.
|
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13
|
185
|
OF
|
Hermida,
Jeremy
|
FLA
|
(25) [R]
|
106
|
150
|
79
|
35
|
If
Hermida can stay healthy for 550+ AB in 2009, then he has good upside
potential. I got a slight discount on
him, so I thought it was worth the risk.
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14
|
206
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OF
|
Burrell,
Pat
|
TB
|
(32) [H]
|
148
|
152
|
58
|
54
|
Pat
Burrell sliding 4 rounds was unexpected, but not shocking. Burrell always seems to get
overlooked. I think Philadelphia made
a big mistake dumping Burrell for Ibanez.
|
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19
|
275
|
OF
|
Gardner,
Brett
|
NYY
|
(25) [S]
|
212
|
355
|
63
|
-80
|
Gardner
is another young player who is having a great spring. He should lock up the starting CF job to
start the season, and he could get 30+ SB in 400+ AB. In Round 19, that would be a bargain,
compared to comparable young base stealers like Cameron Maybin and Carlos
Gomez who went in Round 11.
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21
|
305
|
OF
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Francoeur,
Jeff
|
ATL
|
(25) [B]
|
184
|
199
|
121
|
106
|
Francoeur
had a horrible sophomore season in 2008.
Look for Jeff to bounce back to 20+ HR level in 2009.
|
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24
|
356
|
UH
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Scott,
Luke
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BAL
|
(30) [H]
|
178
|
208
|
178
|
148
|
The
Orioles are one of many teams who have a crowded OF. Luke Scott has 20+ HR power and will get
500+ AB, if he starts the season off well.
|
Overall, I think I got nice value from my draft picks after
round 10. I might have been better of
by selecting a power hitter in round 6 or 7 to fill in my corner infield
position, but I wanted to make sure my team was completely balanced going into
the season. Hopefully, my pitching
staff will help negate my weakness in Home Runs.
|
Rd
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
Name
|
Team
|
|
Roto
|
ADP
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
65
|
SP
|
Haren,
Dan
|
ARI
|
(28)
[K+W+P]
|
33
|
44
|
32
|
21
|
I
considered Haren to be a solid Round 3 pick in 2009, so I was very excited to
get him in Round 5. He is a great fit
for my 2009 draft strategy.
|
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7
|
95
|
SP
|
Hernandez,
Felix
|
SEA
|
(22)
[K+W]
|
74
|
80
|
21
|
15
|
I was
torn between Kazmir and Hernandez with this pick. I went with Felix, since he is a little less of an injury risk,
and he plays in a much weaker division.
|
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9
|
125
|
SP
|
Matsuzaka,
Daisuke
|
BOS
|
(28)
[E+W]
|
66
|
77
|
59
|
48
|
This
bargain pick was definitely a product of the RotoRank Expert Draft Guide
formats. I would have taken Dice-K in
Round 5, but this league was favoring hitters in first 10 rounds, so this
pick solidified the core of my staff.
|
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11
|
155
|
SP
|
Zambrano,
Carlos
|
CHC
|
(27)
[K+W]
|
112
|
124
|
43
|
31
|
In Round
11, there were plenty of good hitters on the board, and I was strongly
considering Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin; however, Zambrano had slipped 31
ADP draft slots and nearly 43 RotoRank Draft Slots.
|
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22
|
326
|
SP
|
Happ, JA
|
PHI
|
(26) []
|
228
|
256
|
98
|
70
|
A great
young pitcher with 1 Strikeout per Inning this Spring. He has a chance to win the fifth spot in
rotation starting in April. If he
starts the season in minors, it will only be a matter of time until he joins
the big club.
|
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23
|
335
|
SP
|
Hughes,
Philip
|
NYY
|
(22) [P]
|
264
|
277
|
71
|
58
|
Hughes
was having a great spring, so I took a flyer on him. It looks as if the Yankees will send him
to the minors to start 2009, which may help build his confidence until the
Yankees need him in May or June.
|
|
6
|
86
|
CL
|
Rodriguez,
Francisco
|
NYM
|
(27)
[S+E]
|
75
|
101
|
11
|
-15
|
In hind
sight, Carlos Pena would have been a better selection for my power strategy
with this pick, but I hate chasing saves in rounds 11 through rounds 15,
since 50% of those mid-tier closers are likely to lose their job at some
point in the season.
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8
|
116
|
CL
|
Jenks,
Bobby
|
CWS
|
(28)
[S+E+P]
|
153
|
141
|
-37
|
-25
|
The
RotoRank Expert Draft Guide format encouraged me to make this pick, because
it indicated that a Closer Run was likely to start. I was happy with the value I had gotten in my first seven rounds,
so I thought I would reach a little to lock up my bullpen.
|
|
25
|
365
|
CL
|
Putz, JJ
|
NYM
|
(32) [S]
|
343
|
397
|
22
|
-32
|
In Round
25, getting the handcuff for Francisco Rodriguez was a great insurance policy
without a high premium!
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I may not have the best pitching staff in the league, but I
think it should finish in the top three spots for each fantasy baseball scoring
category used by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. By drafting two pitchers in Round 22 and Round
23, I gave myself an opportunity to pursue key free agents that will likely
surface during April and May, see Cliff Lee in 2008…
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Rd
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
Name
|
Team
|
|
Roto
|
ADP
|
Rvar
|
Avar
|
Comments
|
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16
|
236
|
2B
|
Casilla,
Alexi
|
MIN
|
(24) []
|
115
|
168
|
121
|
68
|
Either my
projections for 10 HR and 20 SB are way too high for Casilla, or I got a
great bargain that has upside. His
ability to play 2B is good insurance for Kaz Matsui in my MI slot.
|
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18
|
266
|
SS
|
Lowrie,
Jed
|
BOS
|
(24) []
|
321
|
283
|
-55
|
-17
|
Lowrie is
having a great Spring and Lugo had surgery earlier this year. If he continues his hot Spring during
April, then he will likely lock up the starting SS job for the entire
year. Lowrie also qualifies at 3B, so
he is some insurance for Andy Laroche at CI.
|
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20
|
296
|
2B
|
Burriss,
Emmanuel
|
SF
|
(24) [S]
|
204
|
281
|
92
|
15
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Burriss
has 4 stolen bases this spring, so if he can win the 2B job for April, he
could net 30+ SB in 2009. Burriss
also qualifies at SS, which is a nice insurance policy for Theriot’s speed.
|
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27
|
395
|
OF
|
Anderson,
Brian N
|
CWS
|
(27) []
|
191
|
248
|
204
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147
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If his
hot spring carries over into April, he could have his career year at the
magic age of 27! I may start him over
Luke Scott to start the season, since he has 10+ SB potential to go with his
20+ HR power.
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28
|
416
|
OF
|
Balentien,
Wladimir
|
SEA
|
(24) []
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189
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320
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227
|
96
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Balentien
was a hot prospect in 2008, but many owners have over-looked him in
2009. His hot spring may give him the
confidence he needs to become a solid fantasy baseball OF.
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29
|
425
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CL
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Corcoran,
Roy
|
SEA
|
(28) [S]
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393
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443
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32
|
-18
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Seattle
needs a Closer until Chad Cordero can prove he is ready, so Corcoran could
net 5+ Saves in April, if he is selected to pitch in the ninth inning. If the Mariners decide to go with Mark
Lowe, then I’ll replace Corcoran with one of the many Free Agents that I
think can improve my reserve squad.
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30
|
446
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CL
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Turnbow,
Derrick
|
TEX
|
(31) [S]
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433
|
394
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13
|
52
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I wish I
had five more rounds to fill out my bench.
Turnbow is having an awesome Spring, so I took a flyer. I probably should have taken another
player.
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In addition to my core team building strategy, I changed my
strategy for the reserve this year.
Instead of taking extra pitchers or hitters that I thought had promise
for a breakout season, I selected players who could replace my earlier value
picks. Getting a backup in case Justin
Morneau is lost for the year is almost impossible late in the draft, and
usually that type of injury will have an impact on your team’s chances to
compete for the league title, no matter who you have on reserve. On the other hand, if you can select players
who are comparable to your mid-round and late-round fantast baseball draft
picks, you can avoid losing important specialty statistics due to a shallow
free agent talent pool within scarce positions.
Overall I was looking to hit several key targets in order to
compete for the $100,000 national prize.
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Stat
Totals
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AB
|
Hits
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BA
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HR
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R
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RBI
|
SB
|
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RotoRank
Project
|
7847
|
2131
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0.2716
|
277
|
1126
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1134
|
172
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NFBC Winner Totals
|
8000
|
|
0.2827
|
321
|
1225
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1174
|
184
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As you can see, I am about 40 HR short of the targets. If I had grabbed a 35+ HR hitter to CI, I
would have gained at least 20+ HR.
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Stat
Totals
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IP
|
ER
|
K
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W
|
L
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
Saves
|
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RotoRank
Project
|
1377
|
545
|
1140
|
103
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N/A
|
3.562
|
1.229
|
103
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NFBC Winner Totals
|
1600
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1248
|
102
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N/A
|
3.476
|
1.269
|
94
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If my pitchers hit their projections, then I have a pitching
staff capable of winning the league.
Hopefully I can avoid the injury bug in 2009 and I can be in
a position to win my fantasy baseball league this September.
I hope you have as much fun in your fantasy baseball drafts
that I have in each of my drafts. My
next draft is the NBC Fantasy Baseball On-line Championship on April 4,
2009. And I will be using what I
learned from this draft to update my 2009 projections over the next few weeks.
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