In an attempt to explain how get build my draft lists each year, I am walking through the process I use to generate player rankings. Last week, I discussed Step 1 of the process in which I tried to put everyone on a level playing field.
This weekend, I focused my projections on adjusting the stats for players who had an exceptional 2009 season or an unexpectedly poor 2009 season. I posted all of these projections on my Twitter account (http://twitter.com/RotoRank).
Pitchers and hitters who had career years in 2009 need to be analyzed to determine if they can repeat their performance. Very few players can repeat great seasons; so many of the standouts in 2009 are likely to have some decline in 2010. Pitchers who had exceptionally low ERA and WHIP values definitely need to be adjusted downward, as it is not likely for them to keep an ERA well below the league average. In 2010, I expect pitchers like Zack Greinke Javier Lopez, and Chris Carpenter to fall into this category. Likewise, hitters who had a career high in homeruns last season are not likely to build on those numbers, especially if they are not normally elite power hitters. Players like Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and a few others fall into this category.
On the flip side, there are quite a few established veterans who underachieved in 2009 either due to injury or not catching enough breaks. Players like Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Roy Oswalt, and Brandon Webb would fall into this category. I also bumped up the value on some younger players who are entering their prime years or are expecting to see a major increase in playing time.
The impact of this second step is immediately reflected in the Top 20 player rankings for 2010.
Top 20 Players Based Solely on 2009 Actual Statistics
|
Roto |
ADP |
SHARB/SKEWP |
Pos |
Name |
Team |
Age |
Positions |
|
1 |
1 |
H+A+R+B |
1B |
Pujols, Albert |
STL |
30 |
1B , CI |
|
2 |
2 |
S+A+R+B |
SS |
Ramirez, Hanley |
FLA |
26 |
SS , MI |
|
3 |
3 |
S+H+A+R+B |
OF |
Braun, Ryan J. |
MIL |
26 |
OF |
|
4 |
16 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Greinke, Zack |
KC |
26 |
SP |
|
5 |
4 |
H+A+R+B |
1B |
Fielder, Prince |
MIL |
27 |
1B , CI |
|
6 |
5 |
H+R+B |
1B |
Howard, Ryan |
PHI |
30 |
1B , CI |
|
7 |
11 |
H+A+R+B |
C |
Mauer, Joe |
MIN |
26 |
C |
|
8 |
7 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Lincecum, Tim |
SF |
25 |
SP |
|
9 |
17 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Hernandez, Felix |
SEA |
23 |
SP |
|
10 |
27 |
S+A+R |
SS |
Jeter, Derek |
NYY |
35 |
SS , MI |
|
11 |
15 |
S+H+R+B |
3B |
Reynolds, Mark |
ARI |
26 |
3B , 1B , CI |
|
12 |
6 |
S+H+R+B |
OF |
Kemp, Matt |
LA |
25 |
OF |
|
13 |
14 |
S+H+R+B |
SS |
Tulowitzki, Troy |
COL |
25 |
SS , MI |
|
14 |
9 |
S+H+R+B |
2B |
Utley, Chase |
PHI |
31 |
2B , MI |
|
15 |
8 |
S+A+R |
OF |
Crawford, Carl |
TB |
28 |
OF |
|
16 |
35 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Vazquez, Javier |
NYY |
33 |
SP |
|
17 |
25 |
H+R+B |
OF |
Bay, Jason |
NYM |
30 |
OF |
|
18 |
39 |
K+E+W |
SP |
Wainwright, Adam |
STL |
28 |
SP |
|
19 |
21 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Halladay, Roy |
PHI |
32 |
SP |
|
20 |
47 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Carpenter, Chris |
STL |
34 |
SP |
Top 20 Players After Step 2 of RotoRank 2010 Projections
|
Roto |
ADP |
Category |
Pos |
Name |
Team |
Age |
Positions |
|
1 |
1 |
H+A+R+B |
1B |
Pujols, Albert |
STL |
30 |
1B , CI |
|
2 |
3 |
S+H+A+R+B |
OF |
Braun, Ryan J. |
MIL |
26 |
OF |
|
3 |
2 |
S+A+R+B |
SS |
Ramirez, Hanley |
FLA |
26 |
SS , MI |
|
4 |
20 |
H+B |
3B |
Rodriguez, Alex |
NYY |
34 |
3B , CI |
|
5 |
5 |
H+R+B |
1B |
Howard, Ryan |
PHI |
30 |
1B , CI |
|
6 |
18 |
S+H+R |
2B |
Kinsler, Ian |
TEX |
27 |
2B , MI |
|
7 |
4 |
H+A+R+B |
1B |
Fielder, Prince |
MIL |
27 |
1B , CI |
|
8 |
11 |
H+A+R+B |
C |
Mauer, Joe |
MIN |
26 |
C |
|
9 |
9 |
S+H+R+B |
2B |
Utley, Chase |
PHI |
31 |
2B , MI |
|
10 |
6 |
S+H+R+B |
OF |
Kemp, Matt |
LA |
25 |
OF |
|
11 |
7 |
K+E+W+P |
SP |
Lincecum, Tim |
SF |
25 |
SP |
|
12 |
14 |
S+H+R+B |
SS |
Tulowitzki, Troy |
COL |
25 |
SS , MI |
|
13 |
8 |
S+A+R |
OF |
Crawford, Carl |
TB |
28 |
OF |
|
14 |
13 |
H+R+B |
1B |
Teixeira, Mark |
NYY |
29 |
1B , CI |
|
15 |
28 |
K+W+P |
SP |
Haren, Dan |
ARI |
29 |
SP |
|
16 |
69 |
S+H+R |
OF |
Granderson, Curtis |
NYY |
29 |
OF |
|
17 |
10 |
S+A+R |
OF |
Ellsbury, Jacoby |
BOS |
26 |
OF |
|
18 |
23 |
S+H+R+B |
OF |
Werth, Jayson |
PHI |
30 |
OF |
|
19 |
31 |
H+A+R+B |
OF |
Lind, Adam |
TOR |
26 |
OF |
|
20 |
26 |
K+W+P |
SP |
Sabathia, CC |
NYY |
29 |
SP |
After step 2 has been completed, a little over 33% of the Top 20 players from 2009 have been bumped down the draft list. The drops are usually only a round or two, but sometime can be much more dramatic, if I feel that the season was a fluke..
The next step in my process is to put my current draft guide to the test in a mock draft. Ranking players on a list on a one by one basis seems quite easy to do, but if you go to implement the list in a live draft, you may see some rankings that don’t feel right. One example of this can be found in the Top 20 list above. I am not certain anyone other than a Yankee fan would select Curtis Granderson over Jacoby Ellsbury in a standard 5x5 scoring league. I did give Curtis a nice bump as a result of his trade to the Yankees, since it is a better lineup and ballpark for hitters. Another indicator that I may be too high on Granderson is that I have him rated over 50 slots higher than the ADP (Average Draft Pick). People who have used my draft guides in the past would realize that Granderson is one of the players you would let slide until pick 40 or so, but new users who haven’t read my past draft strategy articles on how to use ADP during a fantasy baseball draft would likely view my rankings as being inaccurate.
If you want to know more about RotoRank’s SHARB/SKEWP Fantasy Baseball Ratings, check out the following link:
http://www.rotorank.com/FantasyBaseball/2009+Fantasy+Baseball+Articles/246.aspx
If you have any feedback, send me a tweet, post a comment, or send me a message.