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2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Projections Step 3 Complete

Posted by rotorank on Friday, February 19, 2010 (EST)

See how using mock drafts in early February can help improve your overall fantasy baseball draft guide.

In an attempt to explain how get build my draft lists each year, I am walking through the process I use to generate player rankings. If you would like to follow this process from the start, read my previous articles:

Step 1 – Set projections of players based upon their expected playing time for 2010 using a linear estimation method.
Step 2 – Adjust projections for players who had performances that were not in line with their past performances.

Step 3 is testing out your initial rankings in a mock draft. Mock Drafts are critical to building a good draft guide and having a great draft. The more comfortable you are with how players are ranked in your guide, the more confident you will be in making snap decisions when unexpected gems fall to you in a certain round of your fantasy baseball draft.

Mock drafts are also essential for you to develop your draft strategy for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. Each year I develop a game plan based upon the position scarcity that I identify for a fantasy baseball league. Some years I prefer to draft 7 or 8 hitters in the first 10 rounds of my fantasy baseball draft, and some years I may try to draft a more balanced team in which I draft 6 hitters and 4 pitchers in the first 10 rounds of my fantasy baseball draft.

For my initial mock draft, I try to just make selections based upon the value I see develop during the course of the fantasy baseball draft. After the first mock draft, I can then identify where potential player runs may develop. Also, there also seems to be pockets in which a group of players I like form within a concentrated area of the fantasy baseball draft, for example, I might like 10 starting pitchers in the area of Round 5, and I may not like many hitters in that fantasy baseball draft round. If I can identify those pockets, I can make better decisions before and after those pockets, so that I maximize value and minimize the chance that I don’t cover all of the fantasy baseball statistical categories that I need to win a fantasy baseball league championship.

The following tables displays the first 11 rounds of a 15-team 5x5 fantasy baseball rotisserie-scoring league. I was drafting in slot 7, so I had a lot of interesting choices to make along the way. The rows highlighted in blue are my selections. The rows highlighted in red are players in which the RotoRank Projections is more than 30 picks later than the actual selection. The rows highlighted in green a fantasy baseball draft picks in which the actual selection is more than 30 slots later than what RotoRank projects that player’s fantasy baseball value will be in 2010.

February 19, 2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

MOCK	Roto	Difference	Pos	Name	Team	Age
1	1	0	1B	Pujols, Albert	STL	30
2	4	-2	3B	Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	34
3	3	0	SS	Ramirez, Hanley	FLA	26
4	14	-10	1B	Teixeira, Mark	NYY	29
5	2	3	OF	Braun, Ryan J.	MIL	26
6	6	0	1B	Fielder, Prince	MIL	27
7	5	2	1B	Howard, Ryan	PHI	30
8	25	-17	1B	Cabrera, Miguel	DET	26
9	11	-2	SP	Lincecum, Tim	SF	25
10	22	-12	3B	Longoria, Evan	TB	24
11	8	3	C	Mauer, Joe	MIN	26
12	10	2	OF	Kemp, Matt	LA	25
13	9	4	2B	Utley, Chase	PHI	31
14	13	1	OF	Crawford, Carl	TB	28
15	7	8	2B	Kinsler, Ian	TEX	27
16	12	4	SS	Tulowitzki, Troy	COL	25
17	20	-3	3B	Wright, David	NYM	27
18	16	2	OF	Ellsbury, Jacoby	BOS	26
19	55	-36	SS	Rollins, Jimmy	PHI	31
20	26	-6	3B	Reynolds, Mark	ARI	26
21	24	-3	SS	Reyes, Jose B	NYM	26
22	19	3	OF	Holliday, Matt	STL	30
23	29	-6	OF	Upton, Justin	ARI	22
24	23	1	SP	Sabathia, CC	NYY	29
25	33	-8	C	Martinez, Victor	BOS	31
26	18	8	OF	Lind, Adam	TOR	26
27	27	0	SP	Hernandez, Felix	SEA	23
28	21	7	3B	Zimmerman, Ryan	WAS	25
29	52	-23	1B	Votto, Joey	CIN	26
30	42	-12	OF	Granderson, Curtis	NYY	29
31	37	-6	OF	Markakis, Nick	BAL	26
32	48	-16	OF	Sizemore, Grady	CLE	27
33	30	3	1B	Gonzalez, Adrian	SD	27
34	60	-26	2B	Phillips, Brandon	CIN	28
35	57	-22	OF	Upton, BJ	TB	25
36	58	-22	OF	Hamilton, Josh	TEX	28
37	15	22	OF	Werth, Jayson	PHI	30
38	28	10	SP	Halladay, Roy	PHI	32
39	17	22	SP	Haren, Dan	ARI	29
40	41	-1	1B	Morneau, Justin	MIN	28
41	39	2	SP	Santana, Johan	NYM	31
42	43	-1	3B	Youkilis, Kevin	BOS	31
43	46	-3	OF	Ethier, Andre	LA	27
44	35	9	2B	Cano, Robinson	NYY	27
45	32	13	OF	Bay, Jason	NYM	30
46	40	6	SP	Verlander, Justin	DET	27
47	96	-49	C	McCann, Brian	ATL	26
48	54	-6	1B	Morales, Kendry	ANA	27
49	31	18	SP	Greinke, Zack	KC	26
50	34	16	2B	Roberts, Brian	BAL	32
51	53	-2	2B	Pedroia, Dustin	BOS	26
52	45	7	1B	Lee, Derrek	CHC	34
53	69	-16	3B	Sandoval, Pablo	SF	23
54	68	-14	2B	Hill, Aaron	TOR	28
55	79	-24	SP	Lee, Cliff	PHI	31
56	73	-17	OF	Cruz, Nelson	TEX	29
57	70	-13	3B	Ramirez, Aramis	CHC	31
58	44	14	OF	Hunter, Torii	ANA	34
59	89	-30	SS	Jeter, Derek	NYY	35
60	36	24	SP	Vazquez, Javier	NYY	33
61	38	23	SP	Wainwright, Adam	STL	28
62	56	6	2B	Zobrist, Ben	TB	28
63	51	12	SP	Johnson, Josh	FLA	26
64	78	-14	1B	Dunn, Adam	WAS	30
65	50	15	SP	Lester, Jon	BOS	26
66	64	2	CL	Broxton, Jonathan	LA	25
67	65	2	SP	Beckett, Josh	BOS	29
68	75	-7	CL	Nathan, Joe	MIN	35
69	106	-37	OF	Suzuki, Ichiro	SEA	36
70	67	3	1B	Berkman, Lance	HOU	34
71	105	-34	OF	Ramirez, Manny	LA	37
72	81	-9	OF	Bourn, Michael	HOU	27
73	61	12	SP	Cain, Matt	SF	25
74	47	27	OF	Choo, Shin-Soo	CLE	27
75	88	-13	CL	Papelbon, Jonathan	BOS	29
76	62	14	3B	Figgins, Chone	SEA	32
77	85	-8	OF	Lee, Carlos	HOU	33
78	66	12	OF	Jones, Adam	BAL	24
79	95	-16	OF	Victorino, Shane	PHI	29
80	63	17	OF	Abreu, Bobby	ANA	36
81	83	-2	CL	Rivera, Mariano	NYY	40
82	102	-20	1B	Pena, Carlos	TB	31
83	100	-17	SP	Carpenter, Chris	STL	34
84	77	7	SP	Hamels, Cole	PHI	26
85	119	-34	1B	Butler, Billy	KC	23
86	98	-12	SP	Hanson, Tommy	ATL	23
87	74	13	SP	Gallardo, Yovani	MIL	24
88	91	-3	OF	Pence, Hunter	HOU	26
89	117	-28	SP	Kershaw, Clayton	LA	22
90	114	-24	CL	Rodriguez, Francisco	NYM	28
91	49	42	OF	McCutchen, Andrew	PIT	23
92	94	-2	SP	Peavy, Jake	CWS	28
93	90	3	SP	Billingsley, Chad	LA	25
94	116	-22	CL	Soria, Joakim	KC	25
95	118	-23	2B	Uggla, Dan	FLA	30
97	92	5	OF	McLouth, Nate	ATL	28
98	148	-50	3B	Beckham, Gordon	CWS	0
99	111	-12	3B	Young, Michael	TEX	33
100	179	-79	OF	Quentin, Carlos	CWS	27
101	145	-44	SS	Ramirez, Alexei	CWS	28
102	112	-10	OF	Ibanez, Raul	PHI	37
103	71	32	SP	Jimenez, Ubaldo	COL	26
104	234	-130	SS	Drew, Stephen	ARI	27
105	104	1	SP	Lackey, John	BOS	31
106	80	26	OF	Kubel, Jason	MIN	27
107	101	6	C	Suzuki, Kurt	OAK	26
108	82	26	SS	Bartlett, Jason	TB	30
109	175	-66	OF	Beltran, Carlos	NYM	32
110	113	-3	SP	Nolasco, Ricky	FLA	27
111	122	-11	SP	Burnett, AJ	NYY	33
112	84	28	CL	Bell, Heath	SD	32
113	86	27	1B	Cuddyer, Michael	MIN	31
114	172	-58	OF	Bruce, Jay	CIN	22
115	121	-6	SP	Garza, Matt	TB	26
116	108	8	OF	Span, Denard	MIN	26
117	99	18	OF	Damon, Johnny	NYY	36
118	162	-44	CL	Cordero, Francisco	CIN	34
119	123	-4	SP	Shields, James	TB	28
120	93	27	SP	Weaver, Jered	ANA	27
121	97	24	CL	Bailey, Andrew	OAK	25
122	103	19	OF	Morgan, Nyjer	WAS	29
123	129	-6	OF	Rios, Alexis	CWS	29
124	154	-30	SP	Webb, Brandon	ARI	30
125	136	-11	CL	Valverde, Jose	DET	32
126	128	-2	2B	Lopez, Jose	SEA	26
127	127	0	CL	Street, Huston	COL	26
128	126	2	C	Posada, Jorge	NYY	38
129	107	22	CL	Wilson, Brian	SF	28
130	139	-9	SP	Rodriguez, Wandy	HOU	31
131	189	-58	CL	Jenks, Bobby	CWS	29
132	59	73	2B	Stewart, Ian	COL	24
133	157	-24	SP	Scherzer, Max	DET	25
134	72	62	OF	Gonzalez, Carlos	COL	24
135	152	-17	UH	Guerrero, Vladimir	TEX	34
136	150	-14	C	Martin, Russell	LA	27
137	173	-36	3B	Jones, Chipper	ATL	37
138	176	-38	CL	Marmol, Carlos	CHC	27
139	132	7	2B	Kendrick, Howie	ANA	26
140	87	53	OF	Hawpe, Brad	COL	30
141	198	-57	C	Montero, Miguel	ARI	26
142	254	-112	SS	Furcal, Rafael	LA	31
143	343	-200	C	Soto, Geovany	CHC	27
144	76	68	SS	Escobar, Yunel	ATL	27
145	134	11	SS	Andrus, Elvis	TEX	21
146	124	22	SP	Jackson, Edwin	ARI	26