In an attempt to explain how get build my draft lists each year, I am walking through the process I use to generate player rankings.  If you would like to follow this process from the start, read my previous articles:

• Step 1 – Set projections of players based upon their expected playing time for 2010 using a linear estimation method. 
• Step 2  – Adjust projections for players who had performances that were not in line with their past performances.
• Step 3 - Testing out your initial rankings in a mock draft.   

Step 4 is when I start to incorporate Average Draft Pick (ADP) information into my rankings.  Fantasy baseball mock drafts held in January are not very useful for preparing for the new year, since there are still too many unknowns.  By mid-February, most of the player injury information has been updated, a majority of the key free agent signings have been completed, and a clear picture of each team’s upcoming talent has surfaced.

After participating in some mock drafts the past few weeks and collecting updated player valuations from various fantasy baseball outlets, I have compiled an Average Draft Pick Ranking List.  The value of ADP is for you to learn how a majority of fantasy baseball owners are making their draft day selections.  This list is not ideal for you to draft from, since you are assuming that the mass population has correctly valued all of the players.  If every National Football League team relied on Mel Kiper’s evaluations of Football Players, then there would be no need for the NFL to hold an amateur draft each year.

The real advantage of ADP lists is to determine how your player valuations compare to the general consensus and allow you to decide when you can take a chance of letting one of your hidden fantasy baseball gems slide later in the draft so that you can maximize your return on investment.

This weekend, I updated my ADP information within RotoRank and then identified a few players that were either extremely overvalued or extremely undervalued.  It is easy to miss a few players when ranking 1300+ players each season, so the ADP is a good quality check for my fantasy baseball statistical projections and draft guide rankings.  There will still be some players with considerable fantasy baseball draft guide valuations between RotoRank and the ADP, but these are the instances where I identify my fantasy baseball sleepers and fantasy baseball busts for 2010. The impact of this fourth step on the RotoRank fantasy baseball draft guide rankings is immediately reflected in the Top 20 fantasy baseball player rankings for 2010.

Top 20 Players Based Solely on 2009 Actual Statistics

The players listed in Red above are players who are no longer in the Top 20 for a 15-team 5x5 fantasy baseball rotisserie scoring league based upon RotoRank’s fantasy baseball statistical projections as of February 21, 2010. 

Top 20 Players After Step 4 of RotoRank 2010 Projections

The players listed in Green above are players who have entered the Top 20 for a 15-team 5x5 fantasy baseball rotisserie scoring league based upon RotoRank’s fantasy baseball statistical projections as of February 21, 2010. 

As you can see in the above tables, nine of the Top 20 players have changed from the final 2009 player valutions.  The players who dropped out of the Top 20 didn’t necessarily get dramatically downgraded, but they may have simply been bumped downwards based upon the updated fantasy baseball players projections made by RotoRank for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  Players like Alex Rodriguez and Jose Reyes moved into the Top 20 by simply having their stats projected over 600+ at-bats.  RotoRank subscribers will see a more dramatic shift in rankings when reviewing the Top 300 fantasy baseball player rankings for the 2010 season.

For those of you who would like to see the Top 100 Average Draft Picks (ADP)  that RotoRank compiled for the 2010 fantasy baseball season check out the following table.  NOTE: Average Draft Picks (ADP) as of February 21, 2010.

There are still quite a few steps RotoRank will perform before it finalizes the 2010 fantasy baseball draft guide rankings for the key league drafting weeks between March 19, 2010 and April 5, 2010.  Check back next weekend to see the next step in this series of articles.

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