When comparing your draft list against the Average Draft Picks (ADP) for all fantasy baseball players, you can identify where your projections differ from those of the average fantasy baseball owner.  Knowing the general draft slot for when players will be selected during a fantasy baseball draft is key for you maximizing your draft day value and minimizing your draft day risks.

A few of my fantasy baseball bargains are likely to come in lower than my projections, and there is always a chance that a player I identify as a bust will actually earn their ADP values (especially with the 5 high profile fantasy baseball stars I feel will miss the mark in 2010); however, if you get a few of the RotoRank players a few rounds later than their projected value, and you manage to avoid taking the riskier players at their lofty ADP rankings, your fantasy baseball team will be contention for a top 3 league finish.

This following list of players is based upon the comparison of the RotoRank draft value for a 15-team league using a 5x5 scoring system compared to the ADP.  In cases where the “Roto” draft slot is less than the ADP, these players can be considered potential bargains, if you manage to draft them close to their ADP slot.  I usually recommend drafting these players the round before you would expect the Average Draft Pick to be made.  When the “Roto” draft slot is greater than the ADP, RotoRank is projecting that the player will deliver less value than what the Average Draft Pick requires for the pick to be justified.  In both cases, I tried to find players in which the RotoRank (Roto) value was more than 30 slots apart.

2010 could be the year of “Ian”. I have a feeling that Ian Kinsler is due to have an injury free career year in 2010, and it looks like Ian Stewart is going to get 550+ at-bats with half of them coming in Coors Field.  In Stewart has been one of the Rockies top power prospects for the last few years, so a 30 homerun season is not out of the realm of possibility.  I would target him around pick 90, which allows you to still get good value from him if he fails to get over 25 homeruns.

Brad Hawpe is often overlooked, and in this league format that requires 5 outfielders per team, power Outfielders are actually a relatively scarce commodity.  Hawpe is extremely consistent, and the Rockies have a really nice collection of young hitters that could create plenty of RBI opportunities. Target Hawpe around pick 120.

Yunel Escobar is in his prime age range and he is primed for a career year.  He is a player you can target to help bring your team bating average into the top half of the league.  Slotted just inside the Top 100 by RotoRank, he could provide real value to your team if you can draft him around pick 140.

The first potential bust on my list is Brian McCann.  If you look at the stat line for McCann, you can hardly call 21 Homeruns, 4 RBI, and a .281 Batting Average a bust for the catcher position, but if you are in a very competitive league, the stats you sacrifice by drafting McCann over a stud power hitter in deeper leagues.  In smaller leagues 10-team leagues that only require 3 OF and 1 C, then McCann’s position scarcity will come more into play.  Another reason why McCann may not be a bust at his Average Draft Pick of 45 is that he is entering his prime age range, so he could potentially put up career year numbers with a batting average over .300 and 25+ homeruns.  In larger leagues, you could select Brad Hawpe around 80 picks later than McCann and get very similar production.

Ichiro Suzuki is a sure-fire HOF, but at 36, he could begin to decline.  He will definitely give you an average over .300, but I would not be surprised to see his stolen base total drop to about 15.  If everything goes right for Ichiro, he will earn his ADP value of 50, but you could get similar production from Yunel Escobar about 90 picks later.

Another HOF caliber player makes the RotoRank bust list for 2010 in the form of Manny Ramirez.  Manny has already caused some commotion this spring proclaiming this is his last year with the Dodgers.  At 37, he is also more likely to miss some games due to injury.  If Manny gets motivated, he could easily post an extra 10 homeruns and earn the ADP of 68, but I’d rather not take that risk.  If I can get Manny around pick 90, then I would definitely be more willing to take a gamble on Manny.

Hudson is a very reliable 2B ad his move to the Twins could help him post solid fantasy baseball numbers.  Even if Hudson doesn’t hit the projections that earn him the 130^th player on the RotoRank fantasy baseball draft guide.  If you can select Hudson near pick 170, you are more likely to get an upward surprise than be a disappointment.

Franklin Gutierrez is in his prime and if the Mariners new lineup gels, he could post numbers that are even better than the current RotoRank projections.  If you can draft Gutierrez at pick 190, you could get a nice value.

JA Happ was one of my sleeper picks that RotoRank identified during mid-March after a great spring in 2009, and he put together an even better 2009 regular season.  It looks like many owners are being more aggressive with their pitcher selections in 2010, so not many pitchers in the Top 200 are not being undervalued or overvalued during the early stages of many fantasy baseball drafts.  Target Happ for selection near pick 190,and you could still see some upside potential, especially if Philadelphia gets off to a fast start in 2010.

Beltran makes the RotoRank bust list for two reasons: 1) Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season due to injury; ad 2) Citi Field does not play well for hitters as evidenced by lower power numbers for Mets hitters across the board in 2009.  If you are in a very competitive league, I don’t see the value in grabbing Beltran near pick 100 of your draft.  If he somehow manages to slide to pick 160 or higher, then he may be worth stashing on your bench until he is healthy enough to start the 2010 fantasy baseball season in May.

Of the Top 200 players, RotoRank has identified Carlos Quentin as the biggest potential bust of the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  He is definitely capable of posting big numbers if he stays healthy and he finds his 2008 stroke, but even with him being at the prime age of 27, I don’t have the confidence in him to post Top 100 value.  There are plenty of other players that I like at picks 90 to 110, so unless my team is void of power at this point in the draft, I am likely to go in another direction.  If Quentin would slide to pick 140, I would definitely be more likely to take a gamble on him.

I am sure there will be plenty of readers who will disagree with a few of the players on my list, and this list may change slightly as Spring Training progresses and I update player projections based on new inputs.  In the end, each owner will make their own selections during the draft, so if you really feel strongly about a player, go ahead and draft him, but be aware of his ADP value so that you don’t take him too early or wait too long to make your preferred selections. 

RotoRank reports are designed to give owners the most relevant information for making draft day position, and the ability to see RotoRank projected draft value versus Average Draft Picks (ADP) is just another tool that can assist you in build a competitive fantasy baseball team.  RotoRank’s unique grading system in combination with ADP value tracking should provide you with the information you need to maximize your fantasy baseball draft day selections.