2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Projections Step 6 Complete.doc

In an attempt to explain how get build my draft lists each year, I am walking through the process I use to generate player rankings.  If you would like to follow this process from the start, read my previous articles:

• Step 1 – Set projections of players based upon their expected playing time for 2010 using a linear estimation method. 
• Step 2  – Adjust projections for players who had performances that were not in line with their past performances.
• Step 3 - Testing out your initial fantasy baseball rankings in a mock draft.  
• Step 4 - Incorporate Average Draft Pick (ADP) information into your fantasy baseball rankings.
• Step 5 is a complete review of projected starting rosters for each major league baseball team to determine which players may have increased fantasy baseball value in 2010. 

Step 6 is the final step in building fantasy baseball rankings for the current season.  Step 6 focuses on reviewing the performances of players during spring training to see if there are any indicators that may affect how the final fantasy baseball rankings for MLB players in the upcoming season.

For the most part, you should not overact to the numbers being posted during Spring Training, but they could help you make some tough tie-breaking decisions during the draft.  For example, Tim Lincecum’s poor Spring Training isn’t going to drop his draft day value for 2010, unless some additional reports eventually surface that he has a minor injury that could be affecting his motion.  However, if you are undecided about drafting Tim Lincecum in round 1, or waiting for Roy Halladay in round 2, based on spring numbers, I’d wait to draft Roy Halladay.

Also, some players posting great numbers this spring, like Gerald Laird for Detroit, shouldn’t spur you to move him into the top 200, just because he leads the Tigers in RBI this spring.  Hitting in the Florida Grapefruit League is nothing like hitting in Comerica Park against quality major league pitchers.  On the flip side, if you are considering drafting Miguel Montero over Mike Napoli at catcher this year, Montero’s .190 Spring Training Batting Average compared to Napoli’s .333 Spring Training Batting Average, may lead to drafting Mike Napoli during your fantasy baseball draft.

The information collected during Spring Training may also impact how you rank your Top 100 players.  Let’s take a look at RotoRank’s current list of top 20 fantasy baseball rankings. 

RotoRank Top 20 Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2010

As you can see, this list has changed over the last 6 weeks, but that is the nature of Spring Training.  Injuries have definitely had an impact on specific players and those injuries have also affected the draft value of other players on their respective teams.  The injuries that Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran have to start the season definitely affect the value of fellow Mets Johan Santana, David Wright, and Jason Bay.  Also, if there are a lot of players on the team all having a great spring, like Tampa Bay or Arizona, it could mean that a team is primed for a fast start.  Justin Upton has made a late push into the Top 15 players, and some of his teammates are riding his coattails.  Take a look at Arizona OF Chris B Young, he is having a great spring and he may be preparing to have a career year in 2010, especially with hitters like Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton the rest of the Diamondbacks’ everyday lineup.

MLB Prospects moving up in the Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2010

Another great thing that Spring Training provides is a look into the near future of each team’s top prospects and reclamation projects.  Some teams will be more likely to bring up prospects as early as May, depending upon their immediate needs and long term plans.  Players who have great spring trainings but start the year in the minors are guys you want to add to your team, once they get called up to the show.

The players highlighted in yellow can have legitimate shots to impact your fantasy baseball league in 2010.  Some of the other players may need a few more things to go their way in order for them to have a meaningful impact.

Both of the aforementioned lists may change slighty as spring training ends and each MLB team decides who will make their starting lineup to start the 2010, but RotoRank’s conservative approach to generating projections and fantasy baseball rankings have allowed users to continually draft good teams throughout the 2010 pre-season based on the latest information available.  The rankings will be used to draft RotoRank’s three entries in the 2010 NFBC Online Championship.

If you want an up-to-date fantasy baseball draft guide that utilizes unique player grading reports to highlight clusters of talent at each position for any type of fantasy baseball scoring format, consider a subscription to RotoRank.

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