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2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Results

Posted by on Saturday, March 10, 2012 (EST)

Take 3 different looks at my first fantasy baseball mock draft of 2012.

Last week I participated in my first Mock draft of the season to see how my initial 2012 Fantasy Baseball Player Projections were going to work in a live mock draft.  There was some interesting insight I garnered from this experience, and I made some adjustments to my rankings to account for how the ADP was impacting the draft. 

I drafted from the 10th slot in a 15-team NFBC league format draft, so I didn’t have an opportunity to try some radical draft strategies that I was considering for the 2012 season.

To give you an idea of how your upcoming fantasy baseball drafts may play out, I an examining the Top 135 players selected in this draft and giving you three different perspectives.  I think looking at a draft from different angles can help you get a better idea of how to prepare for the different scenarios you may face during your 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft.

Draft Value Perspective

This view should allow you to easily see how the draft played out as compared to the ADP.  The ADP isn’t the best way to determine if you had a good draft (stat projections for all teams would be better), but it is the easiest way to make a quick analysis of a completed draft during the Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Season.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

1

1

1

Matt Kemp (CF, LAD)

OF

2

2

3

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)

1B

3

3

4

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col)

SS

4

4

7

Ryan Braun (LF, Mil)

OF

5

5

2

Miguel Cabrera (1B, Det)

1B

6

6

13

Justin Upton (RF, Ari)

OF

7

7

6

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, Bos)

1B

8

8

9

Jose Bautista (3B, Tor)

3B

9

9

5

Jacoby Ellsbury (CF, Bos)

OF

10

10

12

Carlos Gonzalez (LF, Col)

OF

11

11

8

Joey Votto (1B, Cin)

1B

12

12

14

Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

3B

13

13

18

Dustin Pedroia (2B, Bos)

2B

14

14

24

Justin Verlander (SP, Det)

SP

15

15

10

Robinson Cano (2B, NYY)

2B

15

16

11

Prince Fielder (1B, Det)

1B

14

17

20

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD)

SP

13

18

15

Hanley Ramirez (SS, Mia)

SS

12

19

16

Curtis Granderson (CF, NYY)

OF

11

20

26

Giancarlo Stanton (RF, Mia)

OF

10

21

17

Ian Kinsler (2B, Tex)

2B

9

22

19

Jose Reyes (SS, Mia)

SS

8

23

27

Josh Hamilton (LF, Tex)

OF

7

24

28

Adrian Beltre (3B, Tex)

3B

6

25

21

Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)

1B

5

26

25

David Wright (3B, NYM)

3B

4

27

22

Andrew McCutchen (CF, Pit)

OF

3

28

33

Carlos Santana (C, Cle)

C

2

29

23

Roy Halladay (SP, Phi)

SP

1

30

30

Tim Lincecum (SP, SF)

SP

1

31

40

Jered Weaver (SP, LAA)

SP

2

32

39

Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex)

SS

3

33

29

Cliff Lee (SP, Phi)

SP

4

34

41

Felix Hernandez (SP, Sea)

SP

5

35

44

Cole Hamels (SP, Phi)

SP

6

36

37

Mike Napoli (C, Tex)

C

7

37

50

David Price (SP, TB)

SP

8

38

62

Zack Greinke (SP, Mil)

SP

9

39

34

Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was)

3B

10

40

36

CC Sabathia (SP, NYY)

SP

11

41

35

B.J. Upton (CF, TB)

OF

12

42

45

Nelson Cruz (RF, Tex)

OF

13

43

31

Matt Holliday (LF, StL)

OF

14

44

43

Brett Lawrie (3B, Tor)

3B

15

45

51

Desmond Jennings (LF, TB)

OF

15

46

32

Hunter Pence (RF, Phi)

OF

14

47

49

Jay Bruce (RF, Cin)

OF

13

48

42

Eric Hosmer (1B, KC)

1B

12

49

81

Michael Morse (1B, Was)

1B

11

50

66

Jon Lester (SP, Bos)

SP

10

51

59

Dan Haren (SP, LAA)

SP

9

52

80

Joe Mauer (C, Min)

C

8

53

57

Alex Gordon (LF, KC)

OF

7

54

96

Corey Hart (RF, Mil)

OF

6

55

53

Pablo Sandoval (3B, SF)

3B

5

56

48

Starlin Castro (SS, ChC)

SS

4

57

63

Stephen Strasburg (SP, Was)

SP

3

58

38

Carl Crawford (LF, Bos)

OF

2

59

46

Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY)

3B

1

60

58

Brian McCann (C, Atl)

C

1

61

64

Paul Konerko (1B, ChW)

1B

2

62

52

Dan Uggla (2B, Atl)

2B

3

63

69

Yovani Gallardo (SP, Mil)

SP

4

64

82

Matt Wieters (C, Bal)

C

5

65

47

Michael Bourn (CF, Atl)

OF

6

66

55

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, Cle)

SS

7

67

98

Matt Moore (SP, TB)

SP

8

68

71

Rickie Weeks (2B, Mil)

2B

9

69

79

Matt Cain (SP, SF)

SP

10

70

99

Michael Pineda (SP, NYY)

SP

11

71

60

Aramis Ramirez (3B, Mil)

3B

12

72

76

James Shields (SP, TB)

SP

13

73

115

Jonathan Papelbon (CL, Phi)

CL

14

74

78

Craig Kimbrel (CL, Atl)

CL

15

75

89

Madison Bumgarner (SP, SF)

SP

15

76

134

Jordan Zimmermann (SP, Was)

SP

14

77

54

Ben Zobrist (2B, TB)

2B

13

78

122

Josh Beckett (SP, Bos)

SP

12

79

67

Ian Kennedy (SP, Ari)

SP

11

80

109

Daniel Hudson (SP, Ari)

SP

10

81

56

Michael Young (3B, Tex)

3B

9

82

61

Brandon Phillips (2B, Cin)

2B

8

83

165

Yu Darvish (SP, Tex)

SP

7

84

70

Jimmy Rollins (SS, Phi)

SS

6

85

74

C.J. Wilson (SP, LAA)

SP

5

86

90

Josh Johnson (SP, Mia)

SP

4

87

75

Chase Utley (2B, Phi)

2B

3

88

65

Kevin Youkilis (3B, Bos)

3B

2

89

68

Buster Posey (C, SF)

C

1

90

83

Adam Jones (CF, Bal)

OF

1

91

86

Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA)

2B

2

92

77

Shane Victorino (CF, Phi)

OF

3

93

73

Brett Gardner (LF, NYY)

OF

4

94

102

J.J. Hardy (SS, Bal)

SS

5

95

91

Drew Stubbs (CF, Cin)

OF

6

96

87

Miguel Montero (C, Ari)

C

7

97

105

Andre Ethier (RF, LAD)

OF

8

98

88

Lance Berkman (1B, StL)

1B

9

99

94

Mat Latos (SP, Cin)

SP

10

100

95

Jason Heyward (RF, Atl)

OF

11

101

85

Chris Young (CF, Ari)

OF

12

102

111

John Axford (CL, Mil)

CL

13

103

97

Mariano Rivera (CL, NYY)

CL

14

104

152

Jordan Walden (CL, LAA)

CL

15

105

106

Ricky Romero (SP, Tor)

SP

15

106

100

Mark Reynolds (3B, Bal)

3B

14

107

135

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, Ari)

1B

13

108

93

Alex Avila (C, Det)

C

12

109

107

Erick Aybar (SS, LAA)

SS

11

110

92

Alexei Ramirez (SS, ChW)

SS

10

111

113

Drew Storen (CL, Was)

CL

9

112

116

Heath Bell (CL, Mia)

CL

8

113

119

Dee Gordon (SS, LAD)

SS

7

114

72

Shin-Soo Choo (RF, Cle)

OF

6

115

136

Brian Wilson (CL, SF)

CL

5

116

146

Joakim Soria (CL, KC)

CL

4

117

118

Emilio Bonifacio (SS, Mia)

SS

3

118

121

Matt Garza (SP, ChC)

SP

2

119

84

Adam Wainwright (SP, StL)

SP

1

120

110

Billy Butler (DH, KC)

DH

1

121

112

Tommy Hanson (SP, Atl)

SP

2

122

145

Ryan Madson (CL, Cin)

CL

3

123

128

Adam Lind (1B, Tor)

1B

4

124

108

Ichiro Suzuki (RF, Sea)

OF

5

125

141

Jesus Montero (C, Sea)

C

6

126

104

Gio Gonzalez (SP, Was)

SP

7

127

154

Brandon Morrow (SP, Tor)

SP

8

128

120

Jayson Werth (RF, Was)

OF

9

129

124

Brandon Beachy (SP, Atl)

SP

10

130

114

Cameron Maybin (CF, SD)

OF

11

131

137

Max Scherzer (SP, Det)

SP

12

132

125

Chris Carpenter (SP, StL)

SP

13

133

132

Jeremy Hellickson (SP, TB)

SP

14

134

123

Derek Jeter (SS, NYY)

SS

15

135

155

Nick Swisher (RF, NYY)

OF

 

I didn’t want to spend time trying to analyze every single selection, i'll leave that to companies like ESPN who actually pay their staff to play fantasy baseball, but I have noted a few picks that I thought were interesting:

Pick 49 [ADP = 81] - Michael Morse (1B, Was) - Morse may have went too early, also has pulled muscle in his back this spring.  Not good for any hitter, especially a power hitter.

 

Pick 54 [ADP = 96] - Corey Hart (RF, Mil) - Likely too early at the time, and with his knee injury keeping him out at least 4 weeks, this pick could be trouble.

 

Pick 67 [ADP = 98] - Matt Moore (SP, TB) - High upside but somewhat of an unproven commodity.  There are several other very good SP in the pool at this point to take the risk on a rookie AL East SP.

 

Pick 76 [ADP = 134] - Jordan Zimmermann (SP, Was) - Way too early for Zimmerman.  He could be a post Top 100 numbers, but why pay full price when ADP is offering you a great discount?

 

Pick 78 [ADP = 122] - Josh Beckett (SP, Bos) - He is traditionally drafted outside Top 100 because the crowd has a wide variety of opinions on him forcing them to push their projections down…

Pick 83 [ADP = 165] - Yu Darvish (SP, Tex) - From what I read to date, Darvish may need to move up my charts, but I'm not sure I would have taken him in this area with some proven veterans still on the board to distract people desperate for pitching.

 

Pick 126 [ADP = 104] - Gio Gonzalez (SP, Was) - I would have taken him ahead of several other pitchers already off the board, including Jordan Zimmermann, Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright, and Ricky Romero to name a few…

 

Pick 127 [ADP = 154] - Brandon Morrow (SP, Tor) - Too early for a pitcher looking to bounce back from a below average 2011.

 

Draft Balance Perspective

In this view, you can review the strategy each team decided to take during the first 9 rounds of this 15-team draft and you can decide if it is something you want to try during your fantasy baseball draft or if there a few strategies you want to avoid which may cause you to select a player that isn’t the top player on your draft chart, especially in a single-season league.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

1

1

1

Matt Kemp (CF, LAD)

OF

1

30

30

Tim Lincecum (SP, SF)

SP

1

31

40

Jered Weaver (SP, LAA)

SP

1

60

58

Brian McCann (C, Atl)

C

1

61

64

Paul Konerko (1B, ChW)

1B

1

90

83

Adam Jones (CF, Bal)

OF

1

91

86

Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA)

2B

1

120

110

Billy Butler (DH, KC)

DH

1

121

112

Tommy Hanson (SP, Atl)

SP

This team has 2 stud SP in first 50 picks, then a nice balance of hitters focused mostly on above average Batting Average.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

2

2

3

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)

1B

2

29

23

Roy Halladay (SP, Phi)

SP

2

32

39

Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex)

SS

2

59

46

Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY)

3B

2

62

52

Dan Uggla (2B, Atl)

2B

2

89

68

Buster Posey (C, SF)

C

2

92

77

Shane Victorino (CF, Phi)

OF

2

119

84

Adam Wainwright (SP, StL)

SP

2

122

145

Ryan Madson (CL, Cin)

CL

Very solid draft, but may be a little risky loading up on so many older veterans and players returning from injury.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

3

3

4

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col)

SS

3

28

33

Carlos Santana (C, Cle)

C

3

33

29

Cliff Lee (SP, Phi)

SP

3

58

38

Carl Crawford (LF, Bos)

OF

3

63

69

Yovani Gallardo (SP, Mil)

SP

3

88

65

Kevin Youkilis (3B, Bos)

3B

3

93

73

Brett Gardner (LF, NYY)

OF

3

118

121

Matt Garza (SP, ChC)

SP

3

123

128

Adam Lind (1B, Tor)

1B

Interesting mix of players, good balance of hitters to pitchers.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

4

4

7

Ryan Braun (LF, Mil)

OF

4

27

22

Andrew McCutchen (CF, Pit)

OF

4

34

41

Felix Hernandez (SP, Sea)

SP

4

57

63

Stephen Strasburg (SP, Was)

SP

4

64

82

Matt Wieters (C, Bal)

C

4

87

75

Chase Utley (2B, Phi)

2B

4

94

102

J.J. Hardy (SS, Bal)

SS

4

117

118

Emilio Bonifacio (SS, Mia)

SS

4

124

108

Ichiro Suzuki (RF, Sea)

OF

Another good draft that has some dominant pitchers selected a little later in Top 50.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

5

5

2

Miguel Cabrera (1B, Det)

1B

5

26

25

David Wright (3B, NYM)

3B

5

35

44

Cole Hamels (SP, Phi)

SP

5

56

48

Starlin Castro (SS, ChC)

SS

5

65

47

Michael Bourn (CF, Atl)

OF

5

86

90

Josh Johnson (SP, Mia)

SP

5

95

91

Drew Stubbs (CF, Cin)

OF

5

116

146

Joakim Soria (CL, KC)

CL

5

125

141

Jesus Montero (C, Sea)

C

This team has a lot of speed, so it will need to find some cheap power Outfielders in middle of the draft.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

6

6

13

Justin Upton (RF, Ari)

OF

6

25

21

Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)

1B

6

36

37

Mike Napoli (C, Tex)

C

6

55

53

Pablo Sandoval (3B, SF)

3B

6

66

55

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, Cle)

SS

6

85

74

C.J. Wilson (SP, LAA)

SP

6

96

87

Miguel Montero (C, Ari)

C

6

115

136

Brian Wilson (CL, SF)

CL

6

126

104

Gio Gonzalez (SP, Was)

SP

If you don't get the Starting Pitchers you want early, its always good to collect Power Hitters.  This team has a chance, if it can find some additional bargain pitchers and some cheap speed.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

7

7

6

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, Bos)

1B

7

24

28

Adrian Beltre (3B, Tex)

3B

7

37

50

David Price (SP, TB)

SP

7

54

96

Corey Hart (RF, Mil)

OF

7

67

98

Matt Moore (SP, TB)

SP

7

84

70

Jimmy Rollins (SS, Phi)

SS

7

97

105

Andre Ethier (RF, LAD)

OF

7

114

72

Shin-Soo Choo (RF, Cle)

OF

7

127

154

Brandon Morrow (SP, Tor)

SP

There is always one owner in the league that takes too many chances and creates opportunities for the more experienced owners to get an edge.  Too many risky players on this team for me, but the player mix is what I expect to see in 2012.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

8

8

9

Jose Bautista (3B, Tor)

3B

8

23

27

Josh Hamilton (LF, Tex)

OF

8

38

62

Zack Greinke (SP, Mil)

SP

8

53

57

Alex Gordon (LF, KC)

OF

8

68

71

Rickie Weeks (2B, Mil)

2B

8

83

165

Yu Darvish (SP, Tex)

SP

8

98

88

Lance Berkman (1B, StL)

1B

8

113

119

Dee Gordon (SS, LAD)

SS

8

128

120

Jayson Werth (RF, Was)

OF

If this collection of hitters performs at their 2011 levels, this team will be in good shape.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

9

9

5

Jacoby Ellsbury (CF, Bos)

OF

9

22

19

Jose Reyes (SS, Mia)

SS

9

39

34

Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was)

3B

9

52

80

Joe Mauer (C, Min)

C

9

69

79

Matt Cain (SP, SF)

SP

9

82

61

Brandon Phillips (2B, Cin)

2B

9

99

94

Mat Latos (SP, Cin)

SP

9

112

116

Heath Bell (CL, Mia)

CL

9

129

124

Brandon Beachy (SP, Atl)

SP

Where is the power?  I do like the value in pitchers and the projected Batting Average for this team!

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

10

10

12

Carlos Gonzalez (LF, Col)

OF

10

21

17

Ian Kinsler (2B, Tex)

2B

10

40

36

CC Sabathia (SP, NYY)

SP

10

51

59

Dan Haren (SP, LAA)

SP

10

70

99

Michael Pineda (SP, NYY)

SP

10

81

56

Michael Young (3B, Tex)

3B

10

100

95

Jason Heyward (RF, Atl)

OF

10

111

113

Drew Storen (CL, Was)

CL

10

130

114

Cameron Maybin (CF, SD)

OF

For this team, I tried to simply draft the best available player on my board that was near the current ADP, so that I could maximize my draft day value.  I did not display my RotoRank values for each player, but I have starting pitchers and closers with dominant stuff ranked higher than the current ADP.   I wasn’t expecting to take three pitchers in a row, but to get above average starters on teams that can win 100 games in 2012, I think that is strategy that will win more often than not.  If Jason Heyward can reach his 30+ HR potential and Michael Young continues to hit for a .300+ BA, this team looks promising, especially if I can hit on some of the breakout players I am targeting for 2012.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

11

11

8

Joey Votto (1B, Cin)

1B

11

20

26

Giancarlo Stanton (RF, Mia)

OF

11

41

35

B.J. Upton (CF, TB)

OF

11

50

66

Jon Lester (SP, Bos)

SP

11

71

60

Aramis Ramirez (3B, Mil)

3B

11

80

109

Daniel Hudson (SP, Ari)

SP

11

101

85

Chris Young (CF, Ari)

OF

11

110

92

Alexei Ramirez (SS, ChW)

SS

11

131

137

Max Scherzer (SP, Det)

SP

This team has a nice mix of speed/power, youth/experience, hitting/pitching…

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

12

12

14

Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

3B

12

19

16

Curtis Granderson (CF, NYY)

OF

12

42

45

Nelson Cruz (RF, Tex)

OF

12

49

81

Michael Morse (1B, Was)

1B

12

72

76

James Shields (SP, TB)

SP

12

79

67

Ian Kennedy (SP, Ari)

SP

12

102

111

John Axford (CL, Mil)

CL

12

109

107

Erick Aybar (SS, LAA)

SS

12

132

125

Chris Carpenter (SP, StL)

SP

Looking at this team (along with Teams 6 and 8), and I am warming up to the idea that I can pass on one of the Top 50 Statting Pitchers.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

13

13

18

Dustin Pedroia (2B, Bos)

2B

13

18

15

Hanley Ramirez (SS, Mia)

SS

13

43

31

Matt Holliday (LF, StL)

OF

13

48

42

Eric Hosmer (1B, KC)

1B

13

73

115

Jonathan Papelbon (CL, Phi)

CL

13

78

122

Josh Beckett (SP, Bos)

SP

13

103

97

Mariano Rivera (CL, NYY)

CL

13

108

93

Alex Avila (C, Det)

C

13

133

132

Jeremy Hellickson (SP, TB)

SP

I really like the Top 4 picks, but may have gone in a different direction for picks 5-9.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

14

14

24

Justin Verlander (SP, Det)

SP

14

17

20

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD)

SP

14

44

43

Brett Lawrie (3B, Tor)

3B

14

47

49

Jay Bruce (RF, Cin)

OF

14

74

78

Craig Kimbrel (CL, Atl)

CL

14

77

54

Ben Zobrist (2B, TB)

2B

14

104

152

Jordan Walden (CL, LAA)

CL

14

107

135

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, Ari)

1B

14

134

123

Derek Jeter (SS, NYY)

SS

With the way this team is configured, Walden probably wasn't best choice for 7th round pick.

Team

Mock

ADP

Player

POS

15

15

10

Robinson Cano (2B, NYY)

2B

15

16

11

Prince Fielder (1B, Det)

1B

15

45

51

Desmond Jennings (LF, TB)

OF

15

46

32

Hunter Pence (RF, Phi)

OF

15

75

89

Madison Bumgarner (SP, SF)

SP

15

76

134

Jordan Zimmermann (SP, Was)

SP

15

105

106

Ricky Romero (SP, Tor)

SP

15

106

100

Mark Reynolds (3B, Bal)

3B

15

135

155

Nick Swisher (RF, NYY)

OF

Another team looking to capitalize on grabbing pitchers between Picks 50 and 135.

 

 

Position Scarcity Perspective

I presented this view to see how well the owners in this league were drafting overall.

Position

Mock

RotoRank

Difference

C

9

9

0

1B

12

14

-2

2B

9

8

1

SS

13

11

2

3B

12

11

1

OF

31

35

-4

DH

1

0

1

SP

38

32

6

CL

10

15

-5

TOTALS

135

135

N/A

 

From the looks of this draft, most of the scarce positions are aligning to what RotoRank is projecting for the number of players at each position that will be drafted in the Top 135 picks; however, there is some information that you can use to your advantage:

1.       Only 10 of the 15 Closers rated in the Top 135 were drafted; therefore, 5 Teams left some value on the board.  With the recent trend of 50% of MLB closers changing through the course of the year, I can see why some people are holding back and hoping to gets cheap saves from later round closers or by drafting the elite middle relievers who are in line to close when the opportunity presents itself.

2.       Some OF and 1B value was left on the board, while owners chose to reach slightly into the next tier of 2B, 3B, SS, and SP.  I can overlook some of the choice for infield picks, but some of the starting pitcher selections in this draft were questionable reaches.

3.       The only DH selected in Top 135 was David Ortiz.

4.       The real value of RotoRank and other position scarcity based draft systems is helping owners fill out their team later in the draft by allowing them to make tougher decisions of deciding when to draft average 2B or SS or 3B over an average 1B or OF or SP.

5.       The deeper and more competitive a league, the less likely you are to get a chance to for early round draft bargains, but there is usually at least one owner in every league that is going to make some risky choices that experienced owners can capitalize on and RotoRank’s Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft Guide Grade Levels can help you spot those rare opportunities.

Conclusions

I was hoping that this mock draft would help me decide if I wanted to draft an elite starting pitcher in the first two rounds, and I think based off of the results above that I will wait until at least the third round to select my first starting pitcher.  I will definitely have two starting pitchers by the sixth round, but I will let the draft flow determine if I will make those selections at rounds 3 and 5 versus rounds 4 and 6.

I will be drafting three teams in the NFBC Online Championship on March 17, March 25, and April 1, and using the results of this Mock Draft, I think I should be able try a few different strategies in an attempt to win the $50,000.00 National Prize.

I will also be drafting a Boxscore Baseball Super Megabucks League on April 1, which uses a few non-standard categories that inspired me to create RotoRank in the first place!

I will try to post my draft results within a few days of the completion of my drafts, so check back in a few weeks!


 

Comments:

NFBC slow draft
By tonikonti on Sunday, March 11, 2012 (EST)
How do you think my first ten picks look?
1)M Cabrera
2)A Beltre
3)R Braun
4)B Zobrist
5)Y Gallardo
6)E Aybar?
7)D Hudson
8)Y Molina
9)J Soria
10)C Maybin

Any thoughts, Thanks Dennis

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