Introduction 
In 1990, I began playing fantasy baseball as a hobby during my first summer off from college that I had to spend working to pay for tuition.  After several years of playing fantasy baseball, I started noticing the patterns that winning owners used during their fantasy baseball drafts, and I started analyzing the methods in order to improve my chances of winning in very competitive leagues.  By the late 1990's, I had a collection of spreadsheets that allowed me to build a customized draft list for each of my fantasy baseball leagues, but it took a lot of time to update each spreadsheet, because all of my leagues seemed to have so many different scoring options.

In 2001, I created RotoRank to help me prepare for multiple fantasy league scoring systems using one consolidated database to store my player projectons.  The software generates reports that group players by their projected fantasy values within any type of league scoring system. 

Organizing Your Research
Compiling a draft list is an essential part of the draft, but knowing how to properly use that list is something that usually takes years of experience; however,  RotoRank is a grading system that allows you to reorganize your fantasy baseball draft list into a more effective drafting guide.

By assigning a letter grade to players with similar statistical value within your league's fantasy baseball scoring system, you have more flexibility when making a draft day decision.  Breaking your list into player groupings rather than just a pure ranking allows you to decide how to build your team.  Instead of using an outdated publication and scolling down a list of available players until you find the highest valued player available, RotoRank can show you how the otherowners have been drafting, and guide you to selecting players of similar value at weaker positions.  Using RotoRank will allow you benfit from the years of fantasy baseball draft day decisions that I and many other experienced owners have used to win fantasy baseball leagues in the past.
Experienced drafters learn that it isn't one superstar that makes or breaks your fantasy baseball team, but the combination of superstars and role players that yield a balanced statistical output within a league's scoring system.   The owners who can get the most out of their role players and late round fantasy baseball draft picks will inevitably win the league.

Many experienced owners utilize a fantasy draft strategy known as position scarcity, whether they are conscience of it or not, and this is the primary philosophy used by RotoRank.  Every baseball fan knows that there is a lot of hitting depth at 1B and OF, and that in most leagues every team will have their pick of the best pitchers in baseball, with many other quality players going undrafted due to roster restrictions..  The key to drafting a winning team is to know when to select a player from a scarce position rather than a similarly skilled player at a much deeper position.

RotoRank reports help you decide when you should select a certain players to fill spots on your fantasy baseball team, you must determine a way to group players that have similar “statistical” value within your league. I like to group players based upon the projected fantasy draft round that each player will be selected.

Group     Rounds
A+          1
A            2
A-          3  
B+          4, 5
B            6, 7 
B-           8, 9 
C+          10, 11, 12
C            13, 14, 15
C-           16, 17, 18
D+          19, 20, 21, 22 
D            23, 24, 25, 26
D-           27, 28, 29, 30

You could determine a different method of grouping players on your draft list, but the goal is to create a group of players that you feel are similar enough in “statistical” value that it doesn’t matter which player you pick from the group as long as he is the best fit for your team at that point in the draft.

Using Your Draft List and Player Groupings

One of the essential things you need to understand about position scarcity is that it differs for each league. Every league has their own rules, so there is no way to create a blanket statement about which positions are scarce that covers all leagues; however, I can make some generalizations based on a common league configuration that may help you understand how to use the RotoRank Expert Draft Guide Report to its full potential. I will base my example on the NFBC 15-Team Snake-Draft in an attempt to identify the scarce positions for the 2005 Season. The NFBC requires the following positions players: 2 Catchers, 1 First Baseman, 1 Second Baseman, 1 Third Baseman, 1 Shortstop, 1 Middle Infielder, 1 Corner Outfielder, 5 Outfielders, 1 Utility Hitter, 6 Starting Pitchers, 3 Relief Pitchers for a total of 23 starting players. For position scarcity, do not include reserve players, as it will only skew the position scarcity profile of the league.

The chart below was compiled using the RotoRank Expert Draft Guide for the NFBC League Configuration, which is already available in you copy of Members Only Software Database. The qualified players will indicate players worthy of a draft pick within the league, and the required players indicate how many players at that position should be drafted by the end of the draft to have all teams with legal lineups. Note that the letter grades assigned to each player are based on the overall average player being worth a Grade of C.

Position Scarcity Chart

Number of Teams:			15
Round	Grade	Picks	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	OF	SP	RP
1	A+	1 - 15		2	1	2	2	4	4
2	A	16 - 30	1	2		2		6	3	1
3	A-	31 - 45	1	4	1	1		6	1	1
4,5	B+	46 - 75	2	1		4	3	10	7	3
6,7	B	76 - 105	1	1	3		2	10	9	4
8,9	B-	106 - 135	3	1	3	2	1	8	9	3
10,11,12	C+	136 - 180	4	4	2	2	2	10	23	2
13,14,15	C	181 - 225		4	3	2	3	7	14	8
16,17,18	C-	226 - 270	1	4	2	2	5	8	15	8
19-22	D+	271 - 330	2	4	4	3	4	11	22	10
Qualified Players =		330	15	27	19	20	22	80	107	40
Required Players =		330	30	25	22	20	23	75	90	45

From the chart above, it is obvious that Catchers are the scarcest position in the NFBC league. NFBC requires 30 total active catchers, but only 12 are above average and there are only 3 more catchers that are worth drafting in the first 23 rounds. Obviously, you want to draft to of these top 13 catchers before round 13 if possible. However, do not take a catcher before his value warrants it. Based on the chart above, the first catcher, Javy Lopez, should be taken in the 2nd or 3rd round at the earliest. I'd personally wait until 3rd round since older catchers are more fragile than other veteran position players. If there were no A+ rated players on the board in round 3, I'd strongly consider Javy Lopez. But, if things don't fall into place like you would like, or if a lot of quality players are slipping, then I'd likely target rounds 8 and 9 to get my two catchers, even if I had to reach into the C+ group to get my second guy.

These positions are traditionally scarce, but last year a lot of new talent surfaced making them a little deeper than normal. All of these positions have quality players worthy of a top 23 round pick with no shortages. I would only consider reaching into a lower group if there was a big difference to be had by doing so. For example, if it s the end of round 3, and the top 5 Third Basemen were already gone, and you didn't think a B+ Third Baseman would be available on your next pick, then I'd consider grabbing one in round three, because there are no B rated Third Baseman and only 2 B- rated Third Baseman.

Traditionally these are the deepest hitter positions in any draft, and the chart reinforces this fact. These are the two positions that you can take more risky picks on, because they are deep. These positions also have a higher percentage of sleepers and late round bargains available, so once all of the A+, A, and A- rated players are off the board, these guys should only be drafted if they have slipped well beyond where they should have been drafted.

These positions are always deep and have plenty of sleepers and late round gems. They also contain the highest risk, since I've seen more pitchers go from greatness to disasters in the course of one year than any other position. I'd only draft pitchers who were rated B- or higher in the top 12 rounds. After that, I think most pitchers are relatively the same, so I just look for late round bargains to surface. In the later rounds, looks for pitchers that play in large pitcher friendly parks or pitchers that are on playoff caliber teams to get maximum value.

If you have the chance, always draft a scarce position over a 1B, OF, and SP; however, don't sacrifice a lot of value to do so. If an A+ rated player is on the board, do not draft a B rated player during your pick just because he plays a scarce position. RotoRank has already built into its ranking a value for the weaker positions, so the only time you want to dip to the next talent level is if you are on the talent breakpoints: A- and B+,  B- and C+,  C- and D+,  etc. 

When two groups are meeting, like rounds 3 and 4; rounds 9 and 10; rounds or 18 and 19, there is usually a few owners that are targeting the same players, and you will need to determine the chances of a guy you want making it to your next pick, if you decide to go in another direction. If you select a player who is hovering around each group’s breaking point, you can flip him into the earlier group, as long as you pick up the player you should have selected in the very next round. By flipping the draft order of borderline players like this, you may be able to prevent other owners, who have a similar position need on their team, from “stealing” your player.

These talent breakpoints also create a unique phenomenon of the “position run”.  A position run is more likely to cause owners problems during a starting pitcher or relief pitcher run, because the impact is usually subtler at the time the pick is made since you are in the middle rounds of the draft (rounds 7 through 18). There is a great tendency to panic when every team already has 2 starters and 2 closers, and you are sitting there with only one of each. If you attempt to match other team’s current allocation of players by dragging players from a lower group into a higher group just to make a pick in the “position run”, then you are missing out on the opportunity to select the most valuable player available from your well researched draft list! Just imagine the impact that this effect can have if there are 4 fantasy experts using this drafting system and 8 rookie fantasy owners who consistently select players from weaker groups in earlier rounds just because they are trying to mimic the veteran owners. With all that extra higher quality talent available to veteran owners later in the draft, I’d be willing to be that at the start of the season, the 4 experts will be in top 5 slots in that league’s standings…

Conclusion
It takes a lot of time and effort to compile an accurate Scarcity Chart for your league, especially if your league doesn’t use the typical 5x5 statistical categories. The custom ranking feature in RotoRank easily converts your draft list into a scarcity chart based on your personal rankings or RotoRank's fantasy baseball projections. RotoRank will allow you to print a report that will group players by position and player grouping, allowing you to have a quick reference guide for your live draft. The above Scarcity Chart Report is a feature available when you can become a RotoRank Subscriber for only $20 for the current fantasy baseball season.