Every year we have to decide who and when we should draft a player who had a successful 2006 campaign. Usually it is the young players that get overrated going into their sophomore season, but this year it seems like the average drafter is betting on veterans returning to their glory days.
This is a list of 10 players that have I believe are being over valued by the average drafter. I will try to avoid drafting these players unless they slip well beyond their average draft ranking. If they can repeat their 2006 seasons, then they will be worth their average draft slot, but this list can help you decide which average ranking should be used over the RotoRank value.
1. Orlando Cabrera (Average Rank 118, RotoRank 242) – It seems like shortstops are being extremely overrated in 2007. There is a lot of speed at this position, and everyone is still putting a premium on stolen bases; however, there are at least 10 shortstops who project to have 20+ SB in 2007, so is there really a need to put a premium on this position. There are a lot of other options in the 8th round that can provide a more likely return on your investment!
2. Todd Helton (Average Rank 72, RotoRank 164) – Helton hasn’t been a top performer over the last few years, and his power numbers have been way down. His rankings are definitely based upon his potential in Coors. I’d rather go with younger talent at this point.
3. Chipper Jones (Average Rank 80, RotoRank 159) – Chipper hasn't been able to stay healthy over the last 3 years, so there is no reason to think he’ll hit 550 At-Bats in 2007. His average ranking is based on Chipper getting at least 500 at-bats with a .300 average.
4. Jason Giambi (Average Rank 67, RotoRank 141) – There is very little upside with Giambi, and with his low BA, he isn’t worth the 67th overall pick.
5. Ching Meng-Wang (Average Rank 117, RotoRank 187) – He had a stellar 2006, but don’t expect a repeat in 2007.
6. Carlos Guillen (Average Rank 58, RotoRank 113) – He has been great when he is healthy. If you think he’ll get 550 At-Bats, then by all means take him with the 58th pick.
7. Chone Figgins (Average Rank 34, RotoRank 101) – The quest for speed has Figgins rated much higher than his stats warrant. His ability to qualify at 3B and the OF also entices owners to make the early selection. He doesn’t have much upside at this point, and he needs a .320 batting average to earn a pick in the 34th slot.
8. Dave Roberts (Average Rank 192, RotoRank 131) - Roberts frequents the DL, and you can’t bank on him getting 49 SB in 2007.
9. Torii Hunter (Average Rank 78, RotoRank 130) – He has all the tools to be a stud fantasy player, but he never seems to put everything all together. If he can stay healthy, hit for .300, get 20 HR, and 20 SB, then he may meet everyone’s expectations.
10. Felipe Lopez (Average Rank 57, RotoRank 95) - The move to the Nationals really hampered his 2nd half numbers in 2006. His decrease in BA and HR makes drops his value in 2007.
There are quite a few other players that have considerable gaps in value, but there are also many players that rank almost identically in both lists. The key to having a successful draft is determining when to use the RotoRank value over the Average Draft value of a player.
This year, the Expert Draft Guide that is generated by the RotoRank software will include each player’s Average Ranking and RotoRank. This information will allow you to make better decisions on draft day.