Introduction
One of the great things about Spring Training is that every team has a chance to start the new season on a clean slate. Many teams use spring training to determine who will make the team, and which young players may get an opportunity to contribute at the major league level.
Most fantasy owners do not put any weight into Spring Training perfromances, because the sample size is relatively small, and the competition is definitely diluted. Most fans know that a team can dominate spring training, but they can then open up the regular season with an 0-10 losing streak. Players statistics during spring training can also be deceiving. Homerun totals during Spring Training are usually inflated because hitters are not facing MLB quality pitching during most of their at-bats, and most pitchers are just using the spring training as a means to build up their endurance. Good spring ERA's can also be deceiving, because some pitchers may be facing the weaker split-squad lineup.
I try not to let Spring Training performances influence me too much on draft day, but it has happened before, and I'm sure it will happen again. Like most people, I try not to use Spring Perfomrnaces to predict regular season statistics; however, Spring Training can be good indicators of who may get off to a fast start, or who may struggle during the early parts of the season.
Positive Indicators
Strikeouts versus Walks - Pitchers who are getting hitters out during the spring with very few walks, usually indicates that they have good command of all their pitches. If a pitcher has his contol ready when the season starts, he is likely going to have a good April.
Hits - With pitchers working on building up their arm strength and fine-tuning their control, hitters should be getting their timing down and making good contact. If you expect a player to have a breakout year in the coming regular season, then they should at least be hitting close to .300 during their 50+ AB in the spring. If they aren't getting many hits, then they better have some decent Runs Scored or Runs Batted In numbers, or you may want to ease off your projections.
Negative Indicators
ERA - If a pitcher is entering April with an ERA over 6, don't expect them to dominate during the early part of the season. The stud pitchers with an ERA over 6 will likely get on track sooner or later, but if a sophomore player is struggling during the spring after his rookie season, I'd hesitate taking that player in the draft unless he slides a few rounds or goes for less than fair market value. I really use this indicator for selecting pitchers in salary cap leagues where you can change the players on your team with more freedom than a standard fantasy baseball league.
Stuckout - If a hitter is striking out a lot during spring training, and they aren't getting many hits, look for that player to have a slow start to the season. If you can't keep pace with pitchers during spring, a player has no shot to handle regular season pitching. Unproven players in their sophomore seasons usually fall into this category. It happened to many players last year, and it is going to happen to a few players this year.
Conclusions
No predictor is 100% accurate and most spring training numbers can be ignored, but they can be good indicators of who will get off to hot starts in the regular season, or which prospects may get an early call up. I usually use this information to build a fast starting team during the draft, then after a few weeks into the season, I look at the teams carrying stud players who are having poor starts, and I begin acquiring them at discounted prices. This is an excellent way to keep your team ahead of the bell curve, and it has helped me win quite a few league and national titles in the past.