Introduction
Trades are always one of the most difficult aspects of fantasy sports. When you have a group of players/owners with various levels of experience in fantasy sports, there is bound to be some controversial trades that arise in your league.
In my early years of Fantasy Baseball, I learned quickly that a few bad trades could quickly decimate a great draft. Even if your team isn’t involved in one trade all year long, bad trades can effect where you finish in the league. If a good owner can take advantage of the weaker owners in your league, you may not end up with the best team at the end of the 2004 season, although you may have drafted the best team.
A lot of leagues have tried implementing various trade rules to prevent lopsided trades from occurring, but in the end, there always seems to be one deal that disrupts the entire league.
Evaluating A Trade
A lot of owners throw out their pre-draft research and resulting draft selection notes a few weeks into the season. This always amazes me, because you put so much time into preparing for the draft, then forget that drafting is only 33% of winning a league! Luck and Team management are the final two components that will allow you to win your league.
The biggest mistake new fantasy baseball owners make in the game is not properly identifying how a trade will benefit/hurt them. A simple trade that may have been proposed in 2003 from an experienced owner to a new fantasy player is “I’ll trade you SP Randy Johnson (ARZ) for SP Kip Wells (PIT). It seems like a no brainer on the surface, because who wouldn’t want RJ on his or her team, but in reality, Kip Wells was the better pitcher last year. Depending upon the circumstances of that offer, it could have caused no controversy or it could have started a league war. For example, if that proposal was made in the first two weeks of April, when RJ was known to be out for at least one month and Kip Wells was still considered a marginal pitcher, then no one would fuss if RJ was going to the weaker team. BUT, if the weaker team were trading RJ for Kip Wells, there would have been a huge out cry, and rightfully so. On the other hand, that same deal in September would have different perceptions among league members, especially if the strong team was trying to jump RJ for the more consistent Kip Wells for their run at the title.
There is no question that the value of players change throughout the year, but perception is a key element in every deal, and if the reputation of one player far exceeds the value of another, you can bet someone will be upset if the deal is made.
Since I tend to be one of the stronger owner’s in my leagues, my trades are always being contested, so I’ve had to justify their merits on numerous occasions. I have come up with a system that allows me to compare the percepted value of a trade I’d like to make, before I make an offer. This helps me make deals that other owners are more likely to accept, and deals that other league owners will not complain about.
I use my recorded draft results to assign a “Perception Value” to the trade value of all my players based upon the round they were drafted. If the percepted value being exchange by the two teams falls within a reasonable range, no one will be able to cry foul, or they might but only because they didn't think of the idea first! For example, a 1st round draft pick in a 25 round draft would be worth 25 units, a 10th round pick would be worth 16 units, and a 25th Round pick would be worth 1 unit. Their combined value is 42 units. So any deal for those three players needs to have 42 +/- 3 units going the other way in exchange for the three players identified. And a collection of 3 or 4 late round draft choices will never balance out two expensive players being requested in the deal. This gives traders the flexibility they need, but also prevents a 5-1 deal, where the top team deals it's last five draft picks for a 1st round stud! This system isn't perfect, because there are cases when I may want to deal AROD for a 2nd and 3rd rounder, and that would not pass the “Perception Value” value test, but as a general guideline, this system seems to work well for me.
A more precise way to compare a trade is to use the RotoRank value on my draft reports, because in some leagues AROD is worth 3.000 statistical value units and the 2nd overall pick is actually worth only 2.500 of statistical units. So, if I wanted to deal AROD for the 2nd overall pick and another player, the additional player's worth should be between 0.500 to 1.000 of statistical value.
It’s not perfect, but if you use these techniques in conjunction with your draft lists and draft results, you will be less likely to commit to a bad trade during the year.
Unbalanced Trades
One of the frequent types of deals that cause problems for a new fantasy player and for the competitive balance of the league is when one team is trading several players for one high-grade player. It’s hard to determine the full impact of the deal by analyzing just the players involved, because the values of the players involved are not being put into proper perspective. If one team is trading two players for one, one team will need to cut a player to free agency in the deal, and one player will need to add a player from free agency in the deal.
If you are offered a 2 for 1 deal, you need to pretend like it is a 2 for 2 deal with the 2nd player going to the other team being the cut player. If the player you are cutting is really bad, then the 2 for 1 deal might make sense for you, but if the player you have to cut is very similar in value to one you are receiving, you’ll see why you should say no to the deal or try to make a counter offer that makes the trade more balanced or favored to you.
League Solutions
A lot of leagues struggle with the problem of balancing the trade environment so that it allows owners to freely deal players in order to improve their teams, but prevents “bad” trades from determining the outcome of the pennant race. I have seen a variety of systems used, and each has their pros and cons.
1) Impose limitations on the teams involved in a trade. They may only trade with teams within 2 spots of them in either direction of the standings. Most bad trades occur when very good teams talk the very bad teams into making a trade. This is usually when you will see a top team offer 2 or 3 of their over-achieving players for a high-profile player that may not be living up to potential.
2) Require that all players up for trade must be announced at least 3 days before any exchange of the players can occur. This prevents the "sneak" attack deals that usually cause a lot of league problems, because some other teams would have offered more for certain players in the deal, but they didn’t even think that the owner would deal that particular player. If everyone had a chance to make an offer, it's unlikely any really bad trades will happen, because other owners will make the bidding more competitive, and it is more in line with the way we all wish business was done. Also, if a team announces they want to move a player and then they make a bad trade because no one else made any offers, then the rest of the owners can only blame themselves!
3) Arrange for an outside entity to review all trades. I've seen a few web sites offer to analyze trades for a fee, and I was tinkering with the idea myself, but it should be agreed upon prior to the season starting. It should take the controversy out of any overturned trades made by the review committee, but if everyone in the league didn’t agree to this process up front, it’ll just cause even more problems. I’ve also seen this review committee approach implemented between two different leagues, so that each benefit from an independent party reviewing all questionable trades.
Conclusion
There is no perfect solution to this problem, but any of the above measures should help prevent the really obvious rip-offs from occurring via a fantasy trade!
If you purchased RotoRank to help prepare yourself for the draft, I think you’ve just seen a way you can extend my draft systems value into the regular season.